After months of resilience in the markets and more controlled inflation, analysts detect mixed signals: from growing complacency to business results that continue to surprise.
Roberto ScholtesHead of Strategy at Singular Bank warns that «We are at a point of complacency… with high profit expectations and aggressive speculative positioning. Our feeling is that we are beginning a consolidation process and it is advisable to be patient to add cuts.»
And Marian Fernández adds to this diagnosisHead of Strategy Andbank who agrees that the data is insufficient to confirm a clear direction: «We are in a moment of certain complacency and waiting due to lack of data. The benefits are there, but there are no longer the catalysts from the beginning of the year.»
In this context, experts are betting on a cautious approach in equities and selective in fixed income.
Roberto Scholtes explains that “We are underweight in equities and fixed income, without assuming much risk in either duration or quality; focus on investment grade, senior and subordinated financial loans.” While Marian Fernandez duck: «Fixed income yes: coupons that pay. In credit, prudence: high yield no longer compensates for the risk as much.»
Looking ahead to the last part of the year, experts see potential catalysts such as the turnaround of central banks or fiscal stimuli.
Andres AllendeManaging Partner de A&G Private Bank anticipates «Between now and the end of the year we see lower rates, especially in the US, fiscal stimulus and positive seasonality. Not everything is discounted; the scenario can still be quite good.»
Furthermore, the artificial intelligence is no longer a promisebut an engine that begins to redefine the cycle.
Andres Allende ensures that «AI is at the beginning. We see increasing cost savings and productivity. There is a long way to go and investment ahead».
A geographic levelpreferences are rebalanced. The focus partially moves away from the US.
Roberto Scholtes details that “We are underweight the US and prefer Europe and Asia.” And Felix Gonzalezgeneral managing partner of Capitalia Familiar EAFI provides: «In Europe, integrated electricity, pharma and biotech; in Asia, the semiconductor chain with more comfortable multiples. For a balanced profile, the US with a bias towards technology and Asian emerging companies.»
Finally, Roberto Scholtes recommends that «liquidity works in high-quality bonds; look for lagging defensive sectors such as health or electricity; and have the shopping list prepared to take advantage of corrections».
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