Antonio Castelo, iBroker analyst, highlights that, in this week so full of references, for the large Wall Street technology companies that publish this week, the fundamental thing will be the implementation of AI, generative artificial intelligence and the guidelines they establish for future quarters. And regarding the market in general, with the maximums in tow, he points out that The doubts and risks remain latent, but momentum wins over valuation.
He points out that five of the “magnificent seven” technology companies publish results this week: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple y Amazon. The analyst foresees better than expected figures, given that the companies have offered very conservative guidance. The market focus will be on forecasts for artificial intelligence, margins and future profitability.
Microsoft and Amazon could lead the increases if they confirm margin expansion and effective monetization of AI, while Meta and Alphabet will depend on the boost in digital advertising and Apple on its services business.
In Spain, regarding the presentation of bank accounts, except for Bankinter which already did so last week, it expects the rest of the entities to present figures along the same lines: somewhat narrower margins, but with greater business volume and rising commissions. Although valuations are already high, Castelo believes that negative surprises will be limited and that the sector could maintain a positive tone if it communicates well its provision management and adaptation to the new environment.
The week is also packed with key references for the financial markets, with the focus on business results—both from large Spanish banks and American technology companies—, the meetings of the main central banks (Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan) and Donald Trump’s trip to Asia, especially China. According to Antonio Castelo, an analyst at iBroker, the environment remains favorable despite high global uncertainty, thanks to solid corporate results and the expectation of accommodative monetary policies.
In the United States, nearly 30% of the S&P 500 companies have presented results with 83% positive earnings surprises, which boosts investor confidence. This quarter could become the fourth consecutive quarter with double-digit growth in earnings per share.
In Europe, the tone is somewhat more cautious, but the market remains optimistic thanks to the improvement in inflation and the possible lowering of rates by the Federal Reserve. However, Castelo warns that structural risks persist: high global debt, inflation still above the 2% target, the lowest growth in Europe and the geopolitical tension between China, Russia and the West.
And it is that Trump’s trip to Asia considered a geopolitical sensitive point: A moderate tone would favor the markets, while a tariff escalation would harm Asian stock markets and currencies.
Finally, Castelo hopes that lThe Federal Reserve announces a 25 basis point cut with a “dovish dovish” tonewhich would maintain support for risk assets, although it warns that the margin of error in the market is increasingly smaller.