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The arrival of ETFs and large institutions would have buried the BTC cycles as we knew them.
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Others maintain that BTC still maintains its usual dynamics.
For years, the halving phenomenon was established as the fundamental predictive model that investors used to understand the mechanics of supply and demand for bitcoin (BTC) in its different cycles.
The most recent event, which—as explained in Criptopedia, the educational section of NoticiasVE,—halves the reward for mining Bitcoin, took place in 2024. Historically, the halving has marked cycles in which bullish and bearish markets are experienced every four years the bitcoin.
This means that after three years of strong increases, the fourth year (2026) becomes the bear market phase. However, the recent massive influx of institutional capital and regulatory changes are eroding the relevance of this four-year patternsuggesting a new dynamic for the bitcoin price.
The perspective of a market more aligned with the quarterly incentives of public markets and less dependent on the halving calendar gains ground.
Institutional capital in bitcoin redefines the pace of the market
However, the idea that the bitcoin cycle is over is increasingly established. At least, that’s what Guillermo Fernandes, a Venezuelan cryptocurrency investor, businessman and consultant, believes.
«The influx of capital from Wall Street and institutional capital into bitcoin implies that this market will be more prone to the behaviors and incentives of other public markets. Large treasury strategies in bitcoin will have large incentives to capture profits and rebalance the ‘cost basis’ – the average acquisition price – near the end of the year, and we will begin to see less defined cycles of 4 years, and closer to 4 quarters,» he told NoticiasVE.
For his part, Daniel Arráez, an economist specialized in bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, explains that bullish and bearish alternation does not necessarily depend on these cycles.
«If there is an increase in demand and a stable supply, obviously the price goes up. “If there is a decrease in demand and a stable supply, the price goes down, and there will be fewer demanders,” he told NoticiasVE.
Arráez adds that the halving loses weight:
These cycles will increasingly lose importance because the amount of bitcoin generated, although it is being reduced by half, does not represent enough bitcoin for there to be a significant alteration in production costs. The gap in the reduction of supply is no longer so wide. So I believe that this stability is being seen on this side. A flattening of the curve and a more stable price.
Daniel Arráez, economist specialized in bitcoin.
Institutions and regulations change the game and the cycles
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, believes that bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle could be significantly altered.
Such alteration is due to growing institutional interest and regulatory changes in the United States, regardless of the halving, which until now have been the main drivers of the four-year cycle.
Hougan attributes this shift, in part, to favorable regulations in the United States with the creation of a national reserve of digital assets, the creation of a Digital Asset Advisory Commission, and regulations such as the Genius Act.
In addition, the turn that Washington is taking paves the way for traditional institutions to enter the world of digital assets, this time on a massive scale.
The arrival of ETFs and currency-based treasuries would have buried the BTC cycles as it was known, these experts agree.
Voices that defend the usual dynamics of bitcoin
In contrast, others maintain that BTC still maintains its usual dynamics.
Henrik Zeberg, chief economist at SwissBlock, a market analysis company, warns that Digital currency is not the safe haven that many believe it is, but rather a high-risk asset whose correlation with stock markets, especially the Nasdaq, could drag it into a devastating fall.
For his part, Willy Woo, analyst and also contributor to SwissBlock, maintains that bitcoin is in the final phase of its bull market. “There is still a long way to go” for new climbs, but expects a big drop after these highs. “We expect a BTC bear market once global macroeconomic markets turn.”
This is because many investors view bitcoin as a «risk» asset, preferring stable macroeconomic environments and seeking refuge in instruments such as Treasuries during turbulence.
Towards a bitcoin adoption supercycle
Manuel Terrones Godoy, an Argentine who is dedicated to disseminating what is happening in the bitcoin and cryptocurrency ecosystem, believes that a «super bullish cycle» for bitcoin would be beginning.
Godoy argues that What’s coming is mostly positive due to massive investment from bitcoin ETFs. «The arrival of bitcoin ETFs on the market is nothing more than a consequence of something that has been seen for a while. Do you know why I call it a super cycle? Because before there were obstacles, today the obstacles are not there, they do not exist. And bitcoin never had a massive adoption cycle, it had a gradual adoption cycle, very slow in fact.
The debate now focuses on the ability of institutional demand to overcome the traditional halving rhythm and the influence of the global macroeconomy. Although the four-year model seems to have lost its predictive hegemony, the bitcoin price is at a crossroads, seeking a new balance between its programmed scarcity and the forces of traditional financial markets.
The future of the digital currency does not seem to be determined solely by the Bitcoin halving, but by the decisions and capital of the large financial players.