During the last decades, The Arctic has been a region characterized by international cooperation, scientific research and relative geopolitical calm. Now, due to the effects of climate change, the natural resources found under its thick ice sheets have become accessible and the melting ice is giving rise to new shipping routes with significant economic potential. These opportunities have turned the Arctic into a region of growing strategic value, a place where powers will fight to increase their influence.
The sovereignty of the Arctic is distributed among the five countries with access to this ocean: Russia, Norway, Denmark, the United States and Canada. Being a group of waters, jurisdiction over the territory is established according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Thus, These five states, known as the Arctic Five, have the right to exploit the resources found within their exclusive economic zone.that is, two hundred nautical miles –about 370 kilometers– from its coasts. Other countries such as Sweden, Finland or Iceland do not have the sovereignty to claim Arctic territories, but due to their proximity and influence, they are part of the Arctic Council, the region’s joint decision-making forum.
The potential of the Arctic has captured the attention of powers in recent years, but this region has already been a key scenario in the past. During World War II, and after the Nazi invasion of Denmark, the United States established bases in Greenland. So, the largest island in the world became an important territory for the allies, essential for transportation between American and Soviet territories.
However, it was during the Cold War when the Arctic became a key region. It allowed the Soviet Union to connect its Pacific fleets with those of the Atlantic and reduce the duration of sea routes. On the other hand, for the United States, the Arctic became its last line of defense against the communist bloc. Thus, this region brought together the necessary factors in a context of tension to become a militarized territory. Both powers began to install military bases and deploy nuclear weapons as a method of deterrence against the enemy side.
Finally, with the fall of the USSR and the end of the Cold War, the Arctic became a tterritory characterized by international cooperation and scientific collaboration. However, in recent years the Arctic has once again captured the interest of great powers.
The effects of climate change are giving rise to new opportunities that promote the fight for control and influence in the region. It is estimated that under its thick ice layers lie around 30% of the world’s gas reserves and up to 13% of the world’s untapped oil. But hydrocarbons are not the only thing, the region is rich in strategic materials for technological development and renewable energies, such as nickel, copper or rare earths.
In addition, the melting ice is making the Arctic Sea navigable for more days a year and There are possibilities of opening new trade routes that would shorten journeyssignificantly reducing travel time and costs. On the other hand, the rise in sea water temperature is causing many species of fish to move north, turning the Arctic into a large fishing reserve, with the economic prosperity that this activity can bring to its territories.
All these possibilities have put the Arctic in the sights of the powers. Russia is the country with the most kilometers of Arctic coastline in the world and the northeastern sea route passes through its coastline. In addition, it has the largest fleet of icebreaking ships in the world, including several nuclear-powered ones. The Kremlin sees the opportunity to regain power in the Arctic and influence in the international sphere and a militarization program has already begun in the region through the reopening of military bases and the deployment of anti-aircraft defense systems.
Due to the invasion of Ukraine and the consequent sanctions, Russia needs new investments to finance itself and China seeks to strengthen its influence in the region. Thus, the two countries have begun joint operations in the Arctic that benefit both. Although China currently has a limited presence, its interest in the region is growing. The great Asian power could be one of the great beneficiaries of the possible new maritime routes, since it would greatly reduce transportation times between Asia and Europe.
For its part, The United States and Western countries also seek to gain weight in this region. Trump has already shown on several occasions his interest in buying Greenland, its natural resources and geographical position would allow the American president to reduce dependence on strategic materials from China and control new sea routes. Furthermore, with the recent inclusion of Sweden and Finland in NATO, the balances of the Arctic have undergone changes. Now, four of the five Arctic countries are part of the Atlantic Alliance, thus increasing the military presence in the region, where there have already been some tensions between Russian and Western aircraft.
At the same time that the region is militarized, the melting ice continues to raise sea levels, threatening entire ecosystems and releasing large quantities of gases such as methane, which have been trapped for thousands of years between the thick layers of ice. However, the powers are focused on the lucrative opportunities offered by the Arctic, a region where they seek to increase their global power and influence.