The bitcoin market would have begun to react to the political and social instability in the United States.
According to data reflected in predictive market platforms, such as Polymarket, the probability that the US government will enter into a new partial closure of activities (known as shutdown) before January 31 climbed to 73%, which can be seen in the following graph:
This spike in expectations of administrative paralysis occurs in a context of high tension, following violent incidents involving federal forces.
The catalyst for this recent uncertainty was an episode of violence that occurred on Saturday, January 24, in the streets of Minneapolis, in the state of Minnesota. A 37-year-old man died instantly after being shot between 5 and 7 times by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent.
According to reports provided by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), the individual, who resisted the authorities’ attempt to disarm. He was carrying a 9mm semi-automatic pistol and two magazines..
Gregory Bovino, commander of the Border Patrol, described the action of the agent involved as «defensive shooting.» This, arguing that the officer feared for his integrity and that of his colleagues.
However, the event has generated a wave of questions. While the authorities defend the legality of the act, sectors of society and local activists have come out to protest and have referred to the incident as an «execution», indicating the use of lethal force by federal agents.
This event has deepened political divisions in the North American country, complicating budget negotiations and raising the risk that an agreement will not be reached in Congress. to fund government operations before the deadlinewhich is next January 31st.
Bitcoin and its role in the face of uncertainty
In theory, bitcoin is often perceived as a haven of value and as an asset that should be strengthened in the face of instability in state institutions. Under this premise, investors would seek to protect their capital outside the traditional financial system when the government shows signs of inoperability.
However, The reality of the market dictates different behavior. In situations of high uncertainty, many investors have chosen to liquidate positions in volatile assets to seek liquidity. In this way, they have treated the digital currency more as a risk asset than a refuge.
The data from the government shutdown that occurred between October and November 2025 demonstrate this. In fact, they demystify the role of BTC as protection in periods of American institutional crisis.
According to the graph below, during that stage of political crisis the asset did not offer stability, but extreme volatility.
It is seen that, at the beginning of the closure, on October 1, 2025, the price experienced an initial rally driven by the refuge narrative. It even catalyzed a new all-time high for the digital asset, reaching $125,800.
But that enthusiasm was short-lived. Shortly after, the price of BTC plummeted to $98,000, erasing gains as the market digested macroeconomic uncertainty and other even more important factors affecting the price of the asset.
The behavior of the digital asset was worse after the end of the conflict, on November 13. Once the government was reestablished, the price continued its downward trend, reaching USD 80,600, demonstrating negative performance compared to pre-conflict levels.
These data show that, due to its extreme volatility, bitcoin did not behave as a safe haven during the last government shutdown. Its current price, of USD 88,724 according to the CriptoNoticia Price Calculator, suggests that the market could repeat this pattern of instability and if the US Government finally closes again. Other factors, such as the 4-year historical pattern of bitcoin or the inflows or outflows of institutional capital could worsen or mitigate the event.