The Middle East is a region that could have had a golden age in the last 50 years and has ended up with half of the region living like a king.What are Saudi Arabia, the Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar like… But the other half is living hell.what are Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen like….
An area touched by the magic wand of the natural resource that has moved the world, oil, and that has heated many homes, gas. But while some regimes have managed to stabilize their countries and provide them with infrastructure for progress, Iran has dedicated itself to financing terrorism and keeping populations in permanent wars, sometimes high intensity, other times low.
If Islamic terrorism had not existed in the region, it would be the richest on the planet, exporting oil and gas for 50 years and having terrible surpluses. All these countries would be rich, they would have their sovereign wealth funds and they would have attracted talent and new types of companies. But they have had to arm themselves to the teeth to protect each other.
Special mention to Lebanon, which was one of the most advanced in the region, a financial and leisure center of the eastern Mediterranean. All of that ended due to regional conflicts, the religious disputes of its three large communities (Christian, Suni and Shii) and the invaluable interference of Iran, and I will no longer tell you what Israel has suffered due to constant attacks and a state that literally wants to «exterminate it from the face of the earth.»
Be careful, I am not saying that Israel is a little sister of charity! That the Palestinians have their right to live in peace and have international recognition as a nation and are in the midst of the force of the Israeli army and the terrorists financed by Iran. Palestinians are victims of a region that has suffered countless conflicts with its neighbors.
All this may change in the coming months. (let’s be serious about the dates).
The Hamas attacks against Israel were the beginning of a great change of cycle in the region1,200 dead and 250 kidnapped put Israel’s defenses in a very bad light and opened a new geopolitical cycle in the area:
First. With the entry with fire of the Israeli army against Hamas in the Gaza StripHamas ends up very weakened and the civilian population of the strip is the one that has suffered the most. Iran’s main ally in the strip has been almost deactivated.
Second. Hezbollah was greatly weakened by the Israeli army after Operation «Beeper» and the explosion of the devices that most of its members had in their hands. Iran’s main ally in Lebanon was very affected
Third. ANDhe Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad finally collapses in the face of a civil war that has lasted too long and has left hundreds of thousands dead and displaced. But Syria was an ally of Iran and its fall has deprived it of a friendly regime that could intercept Israeli aviation and was always willing to put pressure on Israel. This new regime, which is fundamentalist, has for the moment already positioned itself neutral in the total war and has known how to win over the US so that it does not go any further.
We’ll see where this ends in the future, but in the short term it is a big change in the region.
Room. The attacks on Iran in the 12-day war slowed down Iran’s ability to obtain the atomic bomb and affected its drone and missile production infrastructure. And be careful here what is important, The population of Iran is literally «fed up» with the Ayatollah regime. This is the important thing: the young Iranian population wants to live and have freedom.
Quinto. The current US offensive in Iran aims to end the regime, because it has never been so weak since in the area they are very fed up with the Ayatollahs. All Gulf countries want to end the regime and the Iranian population also wants to throw them out and judge them for all the crimes they have committed against their own people.
The US seeks to have a controlled and calm area so that cheap oil can flow and help it lower inflation and thus refinance its cheaper debt, as well as weaken China so that it buys oil at the price of others and not with significant discounts.
If the offensive is successful, we would be talking about there could be a great change in the region to pacify an area that has been in continuous war conflicts for 50 years.. The big problem is if this objective is not achieved, because then the area can literally burn.because the Ayatollah regime doesn’t care about oil, if it has to destroy its infrastructure and those of its neighbors, it wouldn’t matter to them exactly. It is a dictatorship and they seek to survive and impose their beliefs and way of life on the rest of their neighbors.
It’s heads or tails, there is no middle ground. Let’s hope it turns out to be expensive and that we can have a calm zone, cheap oil that helps contain inflation, although we will have a China that will lose competitive advantages with respect to the US by having to pay more for its oil from Iran and Venezuela. Perhaps this will leave opportunities for us Europeans to improve our competitiveness with respect to China.
If heads, the US will be the big winner. The Middle East will be much calmer and Iran will have an opportunity to grow and regain freedoms. China will be the loser in all this.
If the cross comes out, the opposite will happen.