The stock markets have closed the first session of the week with falls, although far from the session’s lows, at a time when It is about “putting a price” on what is happening in the Middle Eastespecially with regard to the duration and consequences of the conflict. For the moment, oil reacts with strong increases this Monday when the whole world looks to see if the chaos in this market could intensify if the war in Iran continues to interrupt transit through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important energy routes in the world.
The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have begun to reduce production as their reserves are depleted while tankers are avoiding the area, reducing the number of ships available to transport crude. This has led to oil to touch the zone of 120 dollarsa level that could consolidate if the main countries do not use their strategic reserves. The Brent oil future is trading at this time with increases of more than 7.8%, leaving it on the verge of $100, while West Texas is up more than 5.3%, to $95.74.
Investors are trying to glimpse the impact that this conflict will have on consumers, companies and inflation, since “it is estimated that each increase of 10 dollars in the price of oil raises inflation between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points,” says Manuel Pinto, director of analysis at XTB, which complicates the margin of action for the Central Banks.
Against this backdrop, the IBEX 35 ends the session with falls of 0.8% to 16,928 points, close to the maximum of the session, at 16,986.10 points and further from the intraday lows at 16,497 points.
Among the most bullish values of the session is Banco Sabadell, with increases of more than 1.10%, up to 3.0240 points. Repsol scores just over one percentage point, above 20.97 euros, and Endesa shares rise more than 1%, meaning that tomorrow they will start the session at 33.60 euros.
A few steps away, the rest of the bank. Caixabank registered increases of 0.8%, Bankinter recorded 0.79% while Unicaja advanced 0.4% at the close of the session, up to 2.5120 euros.
Some increases that manage to offset the strong penalty of Fluidra, which loses more than 5% at closing, as well as ArcelorMittal and MERLIN Properties, with a penalty of more than 3%, so tomorrow they will start from 46.03 euros and 13.71 euros, respectively.
Among the most traded securities of the session, Banco Santander fell more than 1.18%, to 9.4690, Telefónica lost 2.4%, to 3.5830 euros, BBVA lost 0.8%, to 18.22 euros while Iberdrola lost 0.4% at the close.
Values of the Ibex 35 protagonists in the session
In the corporate section, investors will have to monitor Repsol’s price not only in the face of the sharp rise in oil prices, but also in light of the news published by Expansión that the company is preparing an operation to list its upstream subsidiary in the US with an international tour. Next Tuesday, the company will present an update on its strategy until 2028. Are you interested in: Is it still a good time to buy Repsol shares?
BBVA has successfully completed the execution of the first tranche of 1.5 billion euros of the framework share buyback program up to 3.96 billion euros announced in December 2025. This extraordinary buyback, together with the more than 5.2 billion euros in dividends that the entity plans to distribute against 2025, represents more than 9.2 billion euros of remuneration announced to the shareholder from the end of 2025.
In the analyst recommendations, Barclays raises ACS to ‘overweight’ from ‘equal weight’ and also improves the target price to 127 euros per share, from 78 euros previously. For its part, BNP improves its price target to 122 from 111.
Also in the infrastructure sector, Jefferies cuts Ferrovial to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’, while cutting the price target from 62.50 euros to 60 euros per share. On the other hand, Barclays improves the advice of IAG (Iberia) to ‘overweight’, from ‘equal weight’, and JP Morgan reduces BBVA’s target price from 23.50 euros to 23.30 euros.
In the Continuous Market, it must be taken into account that Neinor Homes will propose an extraordinary dividend of 0.708 euros per share.
Wall Street, Europe and other markets and assets
European stock markets close the session with falls although far from the session’s lows. The DAX lost 0.4%, above 23,340 points, the FT-100 lost 0.4%, to 10,240 points, the CAC-40 fell just over one percentage point and the Eurostoxx 50 closed above 5,670 points after falling 0.8% at the close.
They do so after a lower opening on Wall Street. The Dow Jones, which is coming off its worst week in almost a year, is falling sharply again after oil has surpassed $100 per barrel, triggering fears of stagflation in the US economy as a result of the war against Iran. At this time, the Dow Jones is down 0.7%, above 47,150 points, the S&P 500 It falls just over three tenths, above 6,718 points and the NASDAQ 100 remains flat at 22,399 points.
Although Trump wanted to play down fears of an energy shock over the weekend, the war shows few signs of ending in the short term, and even less so after it became known that the ayatollah regime has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader of Iran, indicating that hardliners continue to control power in Tehran.
He volatility index CBOE (VIX), known by many as the fear gauge on Wall Street, rises to 35.3 on Monday, its highest level since April 2021.
In the currency market, the Euro Dollar fell 0.19% against the dollar, to 1.1596 units, while among cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose 2.9%, to $68,822, and Ethereum advanced more than 4%, to $2,022.22.
Macro data and bonuses
The macro data known during the session has thus taken a backseat. In Germany, industrial production recorded a drop of 1.20%. On the other hand, the Sentix index of investor confidence in the euro zone fell to -3.1 in Marchbetter than the -5.0 expected, according to the German agency Sentix. The February data showed a reading of 4.2.
In China, Inflation accelerates to reach its highest level in more than three years due to the effects of the Lunar New Year holidays, while producer deflation persists as weak demand continues to weigh on an economy facing tough external difficulties. The CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year for the fifth consecutive month and exceeds the 0.2% increase recorded in January, according to data from the National Statistics Office. The rate was the highest in 37 months and exceeded the 0.8% increase expected. In monthly terms, the CPI increased 1%, compared to 0.2% in January and the 0.5% expected.
This week the US CPI (Wednesday) and the PCE (Friday) will also be published just at a time when the market is beginning to experience stagflation due to the sharp rise in oil.
In the fixed income market, bond yields rise. The ten-year German bond increases its IRR to 2.8681%, compared to the 3.361% of the ten-year Spanish bond and the 4.134% yield offered by the United States bond for the same term.