What is your vision of everything we are seeing in the markets?
The truth is that we are living a situating con enough uncertainty And this has made us review the downward growth, especially in the United States, but we continue to think that You can probably avoid a recession.
Perhaps the most characteristic of this situation is precisely the Lack of forecast in the measures that the United States is takingbut we trust that negotiations, above all, with respect to tariffs continue to progress and avoid that recession scenario so feared by markets right now.
After that commercial agreement between the US and China, where do you think the US economy is going?
Yes we think The United States is the economy that will suffer the most with these tariffs. It is true that the negotiations of the weekend with China are being worked and in fact China And also China reducing tariffs applied to American products and that is positive, but we do think that the American economy will suffer. In fact, We have reviewed the US growth up to 1.3% for this year And we probably also see that inflation, which is already beginning to show signs of improvement as we saw in the IPC data, perhaps we can also see some upward pressure in prices, which could delay a low type potential of types by the Fed.
We are seeing that Europe is working better than the US, how are you positioned?
Yes, we believe that what is happening with this second Trump mandate changes the situation of world economies and markets. Until now, the United States had enjoyed total exceptionalism and practically investors did not find investment alternatives, apart from the American market, and we believe that has changed.
Now We start seeing other alternativesbeing Europa Perhaps the clearest also with a historical milestone, with that plan in defense, above all, by Germany and that increase in debt roof, which is undoubtedly a significant change in German politics. We believe that it will contribute positively to growth in Europe, mainly in Germany, but we will also see similar movements in Europe.
So, we began to see an alternative to that investment that seemed unique in the United States towards other areas. In fact, we already reduced the weight in the US slightly to position ourselves more in Europe and also tactically in China, and we believe it will continue.
On the other hand, in The United States has little roomboth in monetary policy, so it said before inflation will still remain high above the objective of the Fed and also in fiscal policy, since the deficit that the US has is very high and, precisely, the objective of this Trump government is to reduce it.
In Europa We are seeing the opposite, both fiscal policies, as I said, as monetary, probably with three additional declines that we see by the European Central Bank, which can help that growth, which until now was very focused on the United States, begins to deviate to other parts and Europe we believe that it is the great favored.
Have you made rotation in your portfolios?
Yes We have made rotation.
On the one hand, as I said, We have slightly reduced the weight in the United States to Europe and also to China very tactically. And then we have also increased the weight in gold, within the alternative management, up to 5% thinking that the oroin this more uncertainty environment, it can also have positive behavior.
What prospects do you handle for the market?
In the case of USAof the Fed, we think that there is very likely that there is a decrease of 100 basic points. Maybe the doubt here is the calendar. Everything seems to indicate that it could be this year; In fact, we are still waiting for two declines of 50 basic points each, probably in July and September, but the evolution of the data will have to be seen, above all, inflation data. If they are still high, those descents have to be postponed to 2026; And also depending on how the economy responds and if that recession can be avoided because those declines of types may be delayed, which as I say we hope they are 4, so that the short -term types are located at 3.5% in the US.
And in Europawe have a simpler panorama because inflation data is improving considerably and there we are waiting for three additional declines up to 1.5%; that is, below the neutral interest rate to further stimulate the economy and occur in the next three meetings.