How is the market? Do you consider or not to be invested at this specific moment?
I think the market is very interesting. It is really a moment of many issues, many fronts and many changes. There is a lot of uncertainty, it is true, and we see it, we name the word uncertainty continuously, but it is a very interesting moment. I think you have to be invested, I think there are good investment opportunitiesI think you have to do a good analysis, have a good strategy and do a good tracking, but I think you have to be invested, without a doubt, and more at a time when savings have no alternative, I would say, free of risk, because there is no. Then you have to look for returns a little more in the market, without fear that interesting things can be located and be invested.
Macroeconomically speaking, in what phase are we? What is your valuation of the main indicators?
On the one hand, I would say that, in Europe, I think we are where we wanted to be. A year ago, we tried to cool inflation, we began to move down types, we came from high types, very high inflation and the objective was to reach 2% inflation, the goal was, I believe that getting here. Then the route was following it, we were sailing more or less well and we are in a moment, In that famous 2% neutral typeinflation even a tad below, so I believe that it is also a moment of reflection, it is possible that we have any small or not, there are those who think no.
In any case, if any will be the last one, it is a time to raise again, we have come here, which was where we wanted to arrive, We have stabilized prices, which is the unique objective of the ECB, and now we have to think about where we want to go now, we want to stay here, Obviously see where the energy price data, and so on. I think it is a turning point, of relaxing already, we have achieved the goal we had in the long term and, in the monetary level, I believe that we are in a positive moment.
There is a lot of uncertainty at the macro level on many other fronts, and, internationally, from the United States, of all international, geopolitical relations, all this influences. We will have to analyze the context, it is as I say is a very interesting moment, of many, and of, perhaps instability in that sense, on the one hand in the macro we are stabilized, but on the other we have a point of instability and we will have to see how everything is settled.
From the geographical point of view, Europe or the US, what do we choose?
I always defend that being diversified, that is, the focus has to be open, you are an investor and in your portfolio it has to be positioned a bit with amplitude. I think you have to be in the United States, you have to be in Europe, you even have to be in Asia and, another thing is the weights.
From the Department of Analysis in Investment Strategies, we believe that perhaps you have to be less weighted in the United States, a little more infraction on that side, precisely because of that uncertainty because it gives you more risk and in Europe, I believe that we must be in Europe, It is also a very interesting moment for Europe with a lot of fiscal policy that begins to appear, All these fiscal stimulus packages that seem to start Germany, which is perhaps the European region that is a little more stagnant, we are like taking over from the Locomotive of Europe that seems to us that we have a bit large and not.
It is true that Spain is doing better at the economy level and, therefore, I think you have to diversify too. You have to be in Asia as I say, Do not choose here or there, but well you have to be a little diversified and have a little of everything. The weights depend a bit on the risk of each investor, but really if you do not want to assume a high risk in the United States you have to lower the foot a little.
Pointeros sectors in this concrete market moment
At the sector level, perhaps launching with these fiscal stimuli, those liquidity, investment packages, which are going to go out to the economy, which are going to flow, there are sectors that will have benefited, which in fact seeks to favor those sectors.
For example, obviously the defense sector, cybersecurity … It is true that we are changing some paradigms, we are changing all the bases. I want to say that the defense sector was a little disappeared, everything that was criteria esgDefense was excluded and, now, suddenly it is like, defense sector yes, we see it as a little less aggressive and we must invest in defense because it is necessary and, as we said before geopolitics demand it a bit, to meet those demands that come a bit on the side of Trump and this whole issue, but it is true that a review was necessary, we were as leaving aside that sector and it does not stop being very important for stability, And more after the war in Ukraine and all these conflicts that we have the defense sector, I insist, I think it is a sector in which you have to be and in which as a investor you must participate.
After, There are delicate sectorsthe steel sector that is the first to which the tariffs that are uploaded to twice the 25, we go to 50 and it is also a sector that must be careful, it is a very cyclical sector and that, I say that you have to be there, vigilant, because at the time the cycle begins to throw, it is a sector like I say very cyclical, and it begins to work very well. They have managed to stay in the lower part of the cycle with good restructuring, cost reduction and with very solvent balances and now those companies are very prepared, and have perhaps sought more specialized niches. We have Spanish companies in the steel sector that these tariffs do not affect them as much as Acerinox that has factories in the United States, so you have to look within the sector, which is a delicate sector, but there are opportunities too.
And then long -term technology sectors, there are also many opportunities in Spain, We do not have to go alone to the magnificent of the United States, in Spain there are technology companies with very powerful businesses and, within the reach of all investors from the Spanish market.
The energy sector, besides, is suffering from a little downward energy pricesyou also have to have a little care and watch. Those companies that are very dependent on the price of energy have to be differentiated within the energy sector, and other much more vertical companies that are not so affected by that, and get a bit by volume and get good margins and, you can also be in those sectors even though they are complex.
And then maybe, smore conservative ecores to moderate the risk, health sector, I believe that in the long term with all the demographic drift we have at European and Spanish level, there are also opportunities, because capital flows will turn to those sectors. Just as there is geographically diversifying, you also have to do it sectorially and each sector has its peculiarity. You have to analyze it, but there are opportunities in all.
How to select companies for a long -term investor? What methodology do you use in the EI analysis department?
In investment strategies we have fundamental analysis tools I believe that very interesting for the investor, that is, to facilitate the investor to use them and locate those really solvent and interesting companies for their foundations.
We have all the results of results of results in addition to past exercises a future projection that we update continuously, quarterly. We have all the calculations of ratios, stock market ratios because those that are affected by the PERS, price/ cash flow …
We also have all the profitability ratios, profitability of the business, of the asset and, we have, of course, the balance ratios where you can make a sweep and locate those companies easily, which have solvent balances, and reduce your list and stay.
I believe that at a fundamental level for a long -term investor, which is a bit of the focus that we have in the department, is to look for profitable companies such as solve Sustainable, that it is consistent that there is later a distribution of that value creation with the shareholder, and that the balances are really robust to continue with that growth, more solvent and more efficient.
Then, through the fundamental analysis tool and all the courses we offer in strategies to understand it a little better for all those investors who, maybe they need a bit to understand those ratios, how to interpret them, we have a good tool for all our users.
What is your selection of best companies to invest for fundamental assessment and their update?
The investor and the user can analyze, directly, all the information that but, of course, we analyze from the department all the companies of the Spanish market and we monitor very concrete and, we have a publication for our premium subscribers in which we select a list of the companies with the best valuation by fundamental analysis, that is, the companies in which we consider that today we must be invested, the best opportunities for fundamental assessment.
It is a living list, which we update continuously, according to companies publish their business plans, their results accounts, All kinds of relevant facts and strategic decisions, we analyze them again project our results forecasts. We calculate ratios and, therefore, it is alive and updated, and there the user can find in addition to the companies, what are in each of them there is a report that are the ones we prepared, which I developed, and you can permeate a little why that company we consider that it is a good investment, under criteria of fundamental analysis.
Therefore, I invite you to access our premium area and, for those investors who do not have so much time to devote a deep analysis, we already give it to us already prepared and updated.
You have to take into account a lot of information not only a company and a concrete focus, but you have to see the context what we were talking about now not the analysis a bit top down, That you go from the macro closing the focus you are looking for sectors you are looking for companies. So, I understand that that takes time, you need information, and of course, the investor also, if you cannot dedicate yourself exclusively to that all day, obviously that is our work and we do that analysis.
We select those companies and our investors have all the tools, or to analyze them, or directly we recommend what companies can always be invested with the exception that each investor has to know their investment profile, always take it into account and make their own decisions taking into account their ability to assume risk, of their temporary term, etc. The tools are there, we are delighted to provide the investor for the possibility of profiting their savings.