Los Wall Street analysts They have launched one alert before him Increase in the performance of the US Treasury Bonds at 30 years to almost 5% pointing out concern about American fiscal trends, high inflation and how this impacts the investor appetiteaccording to James Hiral En Yahoo Finance.
The 30 -year -old American bonus yield came up to four basic points, to 4,999%, on Wednesday, before stabilizing, reflecting similar movements in the United Kingdom and Japanwhere an increasingly intense sales wave raised financing costs to its highest level of the century.
«The signal is quite clear: at these levels, there is still no appetite for the long term,» he said Ella Hoxha, Nunton Fhija Fhija Fllace Fhijaa Bloomberg TV this week. «The risk is that there is less appetite in the future.»
In the US, these movements highlight the pressure on the government by investors, which require greater compensation, since they are required to finance the expense plans and the Trump administration taxes.
At the same time, interest rates strategists claim that the efforts of US President Donald Trump for controlling the Federal Reserve with the aim of cutting interest ratesThey are driving the Long -term yield risecompared toShort -term maturitieswhich are more closely linked to the rate established by the Fed. Rate cuts could maintain the bullish pressure on inflation rates, which still exceed the 2% target of the Central Bank, according to strategists.
He Governor of the Fed, Christopher Wallerwho disagreed with the decision of the Central Bank of July to maintain the stable rates in favor of cutting them and has been among Trump’s candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as president of the Central Bank, he reiterated on Wednesday in CNBC who is in favor of Cut the types at the next meeting of September 16 and 17.
Contracts to predict Fed movements have discounted approximately 90% of a cut of types of A quarter quarter this monthand foresee two complete cuts for the end of the year.
In July, the majority of those responsible for the Fed monetary policy considered the fixation of the monetary policy rate of 4.25% to the â € â € â € ‹4.5%, based on the trends of employment and inflation. He President of the Federal Reserve of San Luis, Alberto Musalemhe reiterated that opinion on Wednesday.
The expectations of type cuts by the Fed were shot in early August after the employment data collected by the US government showed a fall in employment creation during the previous three months. The employment data of August will be published on Friday, and an indicator of the vacancies of July is expected, which will be published on Wednesday at 10:00 am, New York time, shows a coherent decrease with the weakening of the labor market.
What Bloomberg strategists say
«Selling the final part of the treasure bond curve with yields close to 5% has not been a very profitable experience this year, so the burden of the test falls to the bassists in duration, who must demonstrate that the yields can be maintained above that threshold for more than a few days in a row,» he said Cameron Cree, Markets Live macroeconomic strategist.
The data that reinforce the expectations of type cuts by the Fed could support the treasure market, where the Weekly survey to JPMorgan Treasury customers and the Open Interest Data from CME Group Treasury They indicated that the operators reduced long positions and increased short positions during the last week.
«A downward surprise in the openings, especially if combined with a greater number of layoffs and a lower amount of casualties, could be a good combination to see purchasing of treasure bonds in the falls,» he said Evelyne Gomez-Liechti, Distrade of Mizuho International PLC.
The yields of the treasure bonds with two to five years reached their lower levels since the beginning of May last week, which generated some of the broader differentials between short and long term yields in years.
«Divergence is an unusual situation that reflects the desire of investors to obtain greater compensation for maintaining long -term bonds,» they wrote in a note estrategas del BlackRock Investment Instituteamong them Wei Li.