Bitcoin is at “deeper risk of cooling”: Glassnode

After the impulse generated by the last meeting of the United States Federal Reserve (FED), Bitcoin reached a maximum of $ 117,000 before entering a corrective phase. The movement responds to a classic «buy the rumor and sells the news.»

The discussion that opens now is whether this setback reflects a healthy consolidation or if it can be the prelude to a deeper correction.

The adjustment from the historical maximum of $ 124,000 per bitcoin to $ 113,700 It is only 8%, a relatively mild drop compared to previous reductions which reached 28% in this same cycle or even 60% in previous stages.

«This behavior is aligned with the background trend: each cycle shows a decreasing volatility, similar to the constant advance of 2015-2017,» says Glassnode, a signature of analysis and market research.

As for the duration of the correction, the current trajectory remains closely aligned with the previous two cycles. If the global maximum is confirmed in $ 124,000, this cycle would have lasted about 1,030 days, A figure very close to the 1,060 days of the previous ones. «Maximum yields are reduced over time, but the temporary structure of the market remains consistent,» says Glassnode.

Beyond the price, the analysis highlights the magnitude of capital tickets. The capitalization made, which reflects the net capital absorbed by the network, amounts to 1.06 billion dollars, with tickets of 678,000 million in this cycle, 1.8 times more than the previous one. «The capital flow confirms the historical magnitude of this phase, with three clear waves since November 2022,» says the study.

The profits (that is, the sale of Bitcoin in exchange for Fíat money) has also been significant. Each time more than 90% of the moved currencies were in profits, cyclic ceilings have been marked. To this is added the role of long -term holders, which They have already materialized in gains of 3.4 million BTCovercoming all previous cycles.

Another key element has been the interaction between the distribution of long -term holders (LTH) and institutional demand via Bitcoin via ETF. While ETF tickets have absorbed a good part of the released offer, The balance has been fragile. «After the Fed meeting, LTH sales rose to 122,000 BTC per month, while ETF’s net flows fell almost to zero,» the report warns.

In that order of ideas, Glassnode points out that there is a «strip and loosen» between the long -term BTC holders that distribute institutional supply and demand through ETF.

«Lth’s gain taking limits the rise, while ETF inputs absorb the distribution and support the progress of the cycle,» explains Glassnode.

The analysis firm concludes that, although the setback after the Fed decision responds to an expected pattern, The widest structure points to increasing exhaustion.

«Unless the demand for institutions and holders aligns again, the risk of deeper cooling remains high,» says Glassnode.

The company also emphasizes that the options markets were revalued aggressively, with an increase in downward bias and greater demand for defensive coverage. In this scenario, «the macroeconomic context suggests an increasingly exhausted market.»

The vision of other specialists

Venezuelan investor and cryptocurrency specialist Daniel Andrés Peláez considers Bitcoin’s demand to be reactivated. In his opinion, «the demand is already increasing just because of the ETF, corporate adoption, institutions,» he told Cryptonoths.

Peláez points out that Companies are buying Bitcoin in a sustained way and reinforcing their exposure to ETFs. «They are going to buy and we add that with global factors such as Fed rates, the Chinese and the European market, where liquidity is being injected,» he explains.

In his opinion, «all that is favoring risk assets and in this case Bitcoin benefits.»

Looking ahead to the last quarter, Peláez projects a positive closure: «I think it will be a fairly volatile fourth quarter, but definitely bullish.» For him, the probable price rank is between USD 175,000 and 250,000 per BTC by the end of this year.

Although he warns about excessive expectations: «There are people who say that Bitcoin could reach $ 500,000. It seems to me that it is too much, that would be rather what is called the fear of staying outside (Fomo) ».

For his part, Tomás Field, Public Relations Manager of the Argentine Exchange Lemon, believes that The falls that BTC has had «are part of the dynamics of a volatile market» and do not alter the foundations of the asset.

The Executive highlighted this informative portal that, despite the correction, the price «is only 10% below its historical maximum, in a favorable macroeconomic scenario marked by greater global liquidity and expectations of new feat cuts in the United States this year.»

According to his analysis, «historically, these factors have promoted new increases, which reinforces the vision that the long -term trend remains bullish.»

Dispute scenario

Seen the above, the Bitcoin market faces mixed signals. There is exhaustion, at risk of greater cooling if there is no new demand. And at the same time, Fundamental factors offer support to the currency and point to a positive year.

Thus, the outcome of this film will depend on whether buyers manage to absorb the offer released by long -term holders. Otherwise, BTC’s upward resistance could be tested, opening roads towards greater corrections.