José Luis Cava states that We live in «an authentic gold fever». He points out that the ounce of gold lies around $ 3,900 and that in September he rose 12.3% compared to 3% of the S&P 500, «despite all artificial intelligence.» The most striking, he explains, is that at the expiration of futures of September in Chicago, who bought “paper gold” massively claimed the physicist delivery: around 2 million ounces. «We are facing a race for gold,» driven mainly by central banks, especially Asians, he explains, aware of global imbalances.
The expert focuses on a graph that relates the price of gold to the money supply. In it, the resistance formed by the maximums of 1988 and 2011 has not been overcome. He wonders what would happen if he does. «How far could the price of gold rise? 10,000, 20,000, 30,000?» For Cava, the graph makes it clear that the race for buying gold is underway.
Then analyze China. Despite registering the largest commercial surplus in its history, there is no parallel increase in reservations or purchases of American bonds. The analyst wonders «where are those dollars» and replies that the big Chinese state banks retain and invest in real estate, actions, precious metals and raw materials in the United States, contributing to the rise in gold.
On the closure of the US government, it describes it as «Inconsequential» for speculation. However, he emphasizes that Trump «has become very furious» and has threatened to definitive dismissals of public employees. This would deteriorate the labor market and favor that Powell cuts typeswhat would be bullish for the bag. Concludes that «The stock market is higher than current levels, despite the closure of the United States government.»
Finally, it addresses a social aspect. He criticizes that the education system deceives young people making them believe that with studies they will achieve economic stability, when in practice they cannot even access a home. For Cava, they discover «the thymus» too late and that «the education system does not teach them to speculate» or to defend against monetary degradation, which qualifies as «pyramidal thymus.»
With a metaphor of the Lazarillo de Tormes, he argues that young people live in «a child innocence» and should awaken: «They have to learn to speculate.»