In this 2025, Spanish banks are a clear example of what can be done more than good in the market. Despite the decreases of ECB types, let’s remember up to eight in the last year, their margins have not resent, presenting enviable results and looking for alternatives to the fall of the interest margin, its usual business.
The dividends and repurchase of shares, together with the BBVA hostile OPA on Banco Sabadell, have encouraged and how to the market, so that the Spanish selective, where the weight of the banks clearly defines its dynamics, is triggered in the year with advances in the sector, in The IBEX Banks, which exceed 83%.
So far perfect. But some shadow appears on the horizon, beyond that it seems that overcome tariff effect, with its potential repercussions on consumption. And one of them arrives directly this week from the United States and the claim, which comes from Donald Trump, US president, to raise the competitive advantage of American banksalso at maximum this year, in front of Europeans.
At the moment, as the Vice President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos in Spain, commented this week, There are destabilizing factors for European banking that arrive on the other side of the Atlantic. He sets his high deficit as an example, but, above all he recalled that the United States has not yet transposed the criteria of Basel III, which could translate into disadvantages for community entities.
One of them is that, as Bloomberg stands out, the Basilea Banking Supervision Committee The possible consideration of the union not as a whole, a single market, but as individual countries, So, fragmenting the risk, the most diversified banks would be clearly harmed because, the state requirements of Basel III to minimize the impact of a possible devaluation of risk assets would be inviduated by state.
And that, without going into individual elevationswould directly impact the results of financial entities, because it would raise capital costs for banks.
A special damage for large banks such as BNP Paribas and for those with a high presence in different countries of the Union. And there the great Spanish banks, Banco Santander and BBVA come into play.
Effect on great Spanish banks
As soon as it was known, on Thursday afternoon, the first shocked turned out to be Banco Santander in the Spanish Stock Exchange. De facto, in the last half an hour of business, the value began to fall, after a day marked by the opening levels for the entity, and finally placed, at the end, as the most penalized value in the session, to recover positions on Friday.
And is that Santander, is one of the most diversified banks in the world. With key markets such as Portugal, Germany, Poland, United Kingdomwhere they now look for new CEO to get into the purchase of TSB to Sabadell, and in Spain. And above all, His strong presence in the US, under control and Fed and direct competition with American banks.
Meanwhile, BBVA has a presence in France, Portugal, Belgium, and Germany, in addition to Spain and in the United Kingdom as well.
From rent 4, Nuria Álvarez emphasizes that «since 2022, the European Union is considered as a single market and is recognized in the calculation of the ratios as a single country. This is where the US wants to interfere, arguing that it is not fair to consider the entire European Union, and that criteria should be established depending on the country. »
The firm points out that «without having figures from where this measure would go in case of implement
Nevertheless, they affirm from rent 4- that «Santander closed 1s25 with A capital ratio of 12.98% which implies having an excess capital over the 12% reference (entity limit) of 6,100 million euros, amount we consider should be sufficient to deal with the implementation of this measure. «
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