Wall Street’s new earnings season arrives in a rarefied climate. While the political pulse in Washington is marked by the government shutdown, investors are entering a decisive stretch of the year without access to key data on employment and production. With the statistical compass broken, the market navigates guided by confidence—and speculation—just when the major American banks are preparing to report their third quarter figures.
The curtain will rise next week, with JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley in front. Their numbers will be the first big test to see if the autumn rally has enough fuel to sustain itself until the end of the year. And, if we stick to precedents, optimism weighs. In the second quarter, the Financial sector gains contributed to about a fifth of the S&P 500’s collective earnings growth.
Optimism in banks justified
Market confidence is also supported on other fronts. The Credit demand shows signs of recovery and delinquencies seem to have peaked. In the capital markets, activity remains solid, favored by a friendlier monetary and regulatory environment. All of this feeds the positive narrative around the big Wall Street banks.
Added to this tailwind is a powerful engine: the mergers and acquisitions. According to Dealogic, the third quarter saw transactions worth $1.26 trillion, a boom that promises to translate into record fees for investment banking divisions. Furthermore, the type cutout perspective by the Federal Reserve and the widening gap between short-term and long-term bond yields paint a favorable scenario for the profitability of the sector.
Not everything is certain, however. The doubts about the impact of the new tariff regime and the moderation of economic growth They plan on the horizon. Even so, the guidance from management teams maintains an optimistic tone and has driven estimates upward.
Year-on-year profit growth of 11.5%
According to the last FactSet report, published last October 3, the S&P 500 on track for year-over-year earnings growth 8% in the third quarter of 2025. This increase in estimates reflects an improvement compared to the 7.3% projected at the beginning of the quarter and marks the ninth consecutive quarter of growthor for the index.
At the sector level, eight of the eleven S&P 500 sectors are projected to report year-over-year earnings growth, led byInformation Technology, Utilities, Materials and Finance. On the other hand, sectors such as Energy and Consumer Staples could experience a decrease in their year-on-year profits.
Specifically, the financial sector is one of the main drivers of this growth. Earnings estimates for the sector have increased by 3.6%, reaching $107.7 billionwhich raises your expected year-on-year growth rate 11,5%. All financial subsectors, including banks, insurance and consumer finance, project positive growth.
When and what results will each bank present?
The major Wall Street banks will present their third quarter results next week in the following order:
- Tuesday, October 14: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup
- Wednesday, October 15: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley
Results forecasts
Regarding the estimates of each bank, according to the company that provides market data, analysis and technological solutions for the financial and raw materials industries Barchart:
JPMorgan: you are expected to register a adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.78, up 9.4% than $4.37 in the same quarter last year. The entity led by Jamie Dimon has had four consecutive quarters exceeding Wall Street estimates, and the market is confident that it will repeat. For 2025 as a whole, analysts forecast EPS of $19.52, up 7.2% year-on-year, and an additional 5.6% advance in 2026, to $20.62.
Goldman Sachs: will present results that could reflect the reactivation of the mergers and issues business. It is expected a EPS of $10.48which would mean a 24.8% jump year-on-year. In the previous quarter, the firm surprised with an EPS of $10.91, beating the consensus by 15.7%. Looking ahead to fiscal 2025, earnings of $46.54 per share are projected, up 14.8%, and additional growth of 14.1% in 2026, to $53.12.
Citigroup: could be one of the positive surprises of the season. According to Barchart, analysts expect a Adjusted EPS of $1.90which would represent a 25.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Citi also maintains an impeccable record of results above consensus. For the full year 2025, EPS is projected to be $7.60, up 27.7%, and a 27.9% advance in 2026, to $9.72 per share.
Wells Fargo: lthe analysts they point to a EPS of $1.54just a 1.3% more than $1.52 the previous year. The entity, however, maintains its history of exceeding forecasts. For all of 2025, an EPS of $5.88 (+6.5%) is estimated, with a projected growth of 14.6% in 2026, to $6.74.
Bank of America: is expected to announce a earnings of $0.94 per shareand 16.1% more than last year. The entity chaired by Brian Moynihan has exceeded forecasts in the last four quarters, including the previous one, where it beat the consensus by 3.5%. By 2025, the market anticipates profits of $3.69 per share, up 12.5%, and an additional jump of 15.7% in 2026, to $4.27.
Close the group Morgan Stanleywhich is also preparing to show strength. The consensus expects a EPS of $2.03and 8% more than the previous year. The firm has exceeded expectations in each of the last four quarters and, in the most recent, it did so with a margin of 10.4%. For fiscal 2025, growth of 11.5% is expected, to $8.86 per share, and an advance of 8.1% in 2026, to $9.58.
What is the potential in the stock market?
From the purely stock market side, the six large Wall Street banks combine solid accumulated returns with mixed growth prospects in the stock market for the coming months. And the fact is that, while some continue to offer room for modest advances, others already reflect a large part of the market’s expectations in their prices. Specifically, according to the Reuters consensus:
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JPMorgan has risen 29% so far in 2025, and analysts, although they recommend buying the value, project a low 2.8% additional potentialup to a price target of $317.78.
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Goldman Sachsdespite accumulating an advance of 39.2% in the year, receives a maintain recommendation and a downside potential of -4.8%up to $760.12 per share.
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Citigroup stands out for its upward potential: after a rise of 40.2% in 2025, analysts point to a possible advance of 11.5%up to $110.03 per share, reinforcing the buy recommendation.
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Wells Fargowith an increase of 15.7% in the year, is also among the favorites for revaluation in the medium term, with a 10% upside potentialup to $89.34.
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Bank of America presents a more moderate performance (+15.1% in 2025), but analysts see room for a 7.4% increaseup to $54.34, consolidating the buy recommendation.
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Morgan Stanleywhich is up 26.3% so far this year, receives a hold rating and a slightly negative potential of -1.55%placing the target price at $156.39.