It is almost impossible to start a conversation with the Venezuelan trader Alberto Cárdenas and not ask him at the outset: how do you see bitcoin? And this was no exception.
His view of the digital asset market is always marked by acuity, something that has allowed him in the past to anticipate bearish or bullish movements.
Although he does not have a crystal ball for clairvoyance and divination, the analyst believes that bitcoin has not yet abandoned its 4-year market cycles, that 2026 will be a bearish year, that altseasons will no longer be like before and most importantly: he expect a new all-time high (ATH) for bitcoin as soon as November.
The latter under only one condition: that the United States Supreme Court rolls back all the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, which would be a serious blow to North American economic policy.
«There is a probability that the court will rule against the tariffs and block this whole issue. That could generate a short-term effect of weakness in the dollar, because the United States would have to repay everything it has charged for tariffs until now. It would be a situation that would cause bitcoin, gold and assets that have a negative correlation with the dollar to rise in price,» Cárdenas explained to NoticiasVE.
What the specialist perceives is that the market is in a lateralization process with a bearish bias due to deterioration in liquidity and a macro environment that is not being favorable.
He believes that if macroeconomic conditions change, such as the issue of tariffs and the end of the US government shutdown, then a bullish rally would come for bitcoin.
It must be remembered that bitcoin reached its historical maximum price on October 6 when it was quoted at $126,000 per unit, a fact reported by this publishing house. However, currently the digital asset is struggling not to fall below $100,000.
Bitcoin completes its 4-year cycle and a bear market is coming
There are multiple opinions in the cryptocurrency ecosystem about if he traditional 4 year bitcoin cycle ended or is still in force.
Those who no longer consider it see that institutional investment and new regulations, mainly from the United States, transformed it and the “three bullish and one bearish years” marked by the halving is no longer fulfilled. Cárdenas is on the opposite side:
The cycle has been fulfilled in the past very accurately and now, understanding that phase of the cycle, we should be close to a historical maximum. For me, a market ceiling is close taking into account that variable that is the cycle and having a year 2026 that I see as bearish for BTC. We must prepare for a difficult 2026 for bitcoin, it will be corrective.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan trader
What it does ensure is that, when looking at the global macroeconomic panorama, the current situation is different from past cycles. On this point he pointed out that the most important variable is that there is not an abundance of liquidity that was had in previous cycles.
«Right now we have global uncertainty. There is an important issue with the tariffs proposed by the Trump administration that came into effect starting in August. We do not know how the economy will react in the coming months,» he said.
In relation to the altseasons, our interviewee affirms that these will no longer be like before. His view is that there is a rotation in the cryptocurrency space not supported by liquidity.
«Now you are seeing things like the rally in ZCash. This is an incredible, but asymmetrical, punctual rally in some currencies, while you observe weakness in XRP, you are seeing weakness in other things. What there is is an internal rotation that usually happens in almost all markets.»
Regarding the prolonged closure of the United States government, Cárdenas commented that, although these situations usually do not affect the markets as much, on this occasion, as they extend longer than they should, there are considerations to take into account such as the opacity of official data.
Stock Market and tokenization in Venezuela
Cárdenas has always considered Venezuela as a “laboratory” in relation to cryptocurrencies. This is because, as our editorial this week points out, in recent years the country has taken multiple paths within the world of digital assets: from regulations, adoption and then prohibition of mining, creation of its own token (the petro) to the current effervescence over the Tether stablecoin, USDT.
Beyond these realities, the trader sees potential for the country to begin to get involved with the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), which could open the doors to an unprecedented market.
In fact, the Caracas Stock Exchange, as he commented, is already getting involved in the educational aspect with the Venezuelan Institute of Capital Markets.
«A course on tokenization was recently given, but there is still no confirmation about possible projects of this type. «I find it very interesting that the Caracas stock exchange, for example, is fully committed to seriously understanding the issue of tokenization,» added the analyst.
Given this global trend of digitization of real estate, financial products or even works of art, Cárdenas said that it would be necessary to rethink the business because it considers that this financial business space is changing.
I think that the old model based on transactional commission charges, like someone might have in a brokerage house, is dying, in my opinion, it is dying and businesses are becoming more efficient. The business has to go to something else, probably custody, security, probably consulting or something else, but that old transactional business I no longer see business there.
Alberto Cárdenas, Venezuelan trader
When asked what areas he sees with potential to explore tokenization in Venezuela, he said that real estate is an “incredibly interesting space.”
«If that happens, you would give liquidity and fluidity to a market that is by nature illiquid.» The other areas that he sees with possibilities are: the agroindustrial sector, commodities, inventories, shares of companies listed on the stock market.
«The range is enormous, but you always have to think about the positive impact it can have on the country. «If it is going to give it liquidity, dynamism and even eventually be a bridge to attract foreign investment.»