The markets enter a decisive phase while an almost unknown indicator—but historically infallible when it comes to anticipating large falls—begins to set off alarm bells. In full dominance of artificial intelligence and with 2025 marked by upward leverage, experts warn: we could be repeating the pattern prior to the last major crises.
In a year marked by volatility, the decisions of the Federal Reserve and the rise of artificial intelligence, experts agree that 2025 has been a turning point for the markets. Active management, diversification and flexibility have once again been essential to weather an environment that combines opportunities and risks in equal parts.
In this sense, José María Luna, partner at Luna Sevilla Asesores Patrimoniales, summarizes the year as a period of strong contrasts with heads and tails. The advance of sectors such as technology and health has driven more dynamic portfolios, but currency risk control and liquidity management have been decisive in preserving profitability. In his opinion, the second part of the year has rewarded those who knew how to maintain discipline in asset allocation. You may be interested in: The selectors think: The three pillars that are saving portfolios in 2025, are the portfolios prepared?
Looking ahead, experts recommend caution. There are some indicators that point to stock market declines. And some that are barely known but surprise when seen. «When I think about leverage, I always imagine the scene of the climber without a rope. If you are climbing safely, you may go slower. But if you go at full speed propelled artificially and without a rope and, suddenly, the system screws up, the pineapple is enormous and can be lethal.
Well, here is the information. I show you the variation of Margin Debt in the NY Stock Exchange with a two-year rate. In simple words, how much investor leverage has grown (or fallen) in 24 months.
When the money that brokers lend to people to invest in a leveraged manner begins to skyrocket to rates that exceed 60%, we enter what I call the “EYE” zone. Because? Well, it is clearly an indication of overheating. It happened before the fall of the technology bubble, just before the falls of the great recession of 2007-2008, it reappeared at the end of 2021; yes, just before the falls of 2022… On all of those occasions, the market ended up correcting quite abruptly. He is the doped climber,” says Carlos Arenas, director of fund analysis at Ei in The clearest sign of the falls to come.
However, there are sectors that will continue to lead. In the capital markets, assets linked to the universe of artificial intelligence (AI) have been catapulted into their own orbit and determine the pace of the stock markets, especially in the United States and China. From an economic perspective, technology has become a decisive engine of growth. Closer analysis reveals that a substantial portion of the increase in US GDP during the first half of 2025 came from investments in technology and software: about 1.3 percentage points of the total 1.6% expansion. In other words, the sector represented just over 80% of total growth.
In this context, it is worth taking a deeper look at the prospects for technology and artificial intelligence. Several factors indicate that the current boom will likely continue. You may be interested in: The “Age of Intelligence”.
If we look at NVIDIA, Meta (Facebook), Amazon and company, their recent success has been undeniable. But so was its collapse in 2022, with falls of more than 70%. Many investors entered 2021 because of FOMO (fear of missing out) and they left in 2022 due to panic. On the other hand, those who maintained their strategy—perhaps through a global fund with a bias growthor even from the perspective value which incorporated some of these companies after the fall—saw a spectacular recovery in 2023 and 2024.
In finance, the cost of not being invested is stopping benefiting from compound interest. A fund that gives you 9% annually can double or triple your capital in a short time. But that 9% does not reach you if you are in liquidity waiting for the best moment. See: Always inverted… but your way.
If you want a recommendation to be invested, the fund DPAM NEWGEMS «it makes a combination of winners of the future with leaders of the present. In the fund we can find from a Microsoft to an Impinj (which I don’t think I know what it is, but I’ll tell you now), through a BasicFit or an Intuitive Surgical. The fund looks for those companies that are going to change how we live, how we take care of ourselves, how we work and how we consume. For example, that strange company called Impinj is the one that makes the chips that allow you to pay at Decathlon by putting things in the box and detecting them. It’s not magic, it’s this company’s chips. And this is used to control inventories and a thousand other things. Imagine if in the supermarket or in any store you can buy and leave without having to wait in line. Don’t miss: NEWGEMS, the fund that invests in the future.
And there are great investment opportunities beyond Europe. Diversification moderates risk and provides profitability. María Mira, fundamental analyst of Investment Strategies, proposes an ETF to position ourselves in equities in the Asia-Pacific region and with a dividend distribution.
A liquid asset, exchange-traded fund, that positions us in equities in the Asia-Pacific region. This is the iShares Dow Jones Asia Pacific Select Dividend 50 (DE) (Ticker: IAPD LN; ISIN: IE00B14X4T88), an exchange-traded fund (ETF) whose objective is to replicate as accurately as possible the behavior of the Dow Jones Asia/Pacific Select Dividend 50, its benchmark index. This index groups the 50 companies with the highest dividend yield in the developed markets of the Asia-Pacific region. See: ETF to position ourselves in VR in Asia Pacific and receive dividends.