What market balance do you make of this 2025?
It’s been a year, I would say, of scare and relief.
An initial scare with the famous scene in the White House rose garden and the large poster of Trump’s tariffs, which later faded as it became clear that Trump was sensitive to the effect that this had had on the markets. And a subsequent period in which what the market has done, I believe, has been to sigh with relief and try forget what had happened.
For you, what has been the most complicated this year and what do you think will be the most complicated next year?
One of the things I said before has been complicated because it is true that the market’s reaction has been one of relief, of forgetting what happened, but deep down something has happened; That is, Trump came out announcing duty that were going to be around 30%, then it was softened, but right now the effective tariff that American importers are paying is 12 or so percent. Which means that The increase in consumption taxes, which are tariffs, has been very aggressive. And that has begun to come into effect, starting in the month of May-June, with which the impacts on the American economy will begin to be seen in the data that we see for September-October, which are arriving late. But the market has forgotten how it has lived as if that were not happening.
We have had a quite abrupt slowdown of the American economy that cannot be blamed on the tariffs, mainly because, as I say, they have not really started until the summer, the slowdown well before, which we believe has more to do with uncertainty or more than uncertainty, the concern that these erratic policies generate in American businessmen and consumers.
And at the same time we have had a investment process in capital goodsspecifically, in data centers that has made something happen that we have never seen before and we have economic history in USApractically since the 19th century, we have had an acceleration in investment and a very sharp drop in the rate of job creation, which is a quite unprecedented scenario. And I think the question about 20262 is how it is resolved. If employment is reactivated, and let’s say, it approaches those healthy levels of investment growth, or the other way around. It’s a question, we don’t really have an answer one way or the other.
With which, the scenario for us right now is opaque.
Which assets and regions have performed best in your portfolios?
In ours and in those of the whole world. The best performance we have of the 56 indices we follow is: the best in Switzerland, the second best in Brazil, and the third is Spain.
Looking at it in geographic blocks, it really has been a year in which what has especially paid you is not being in the United States.
That is the summary of the things that have gone well this year. It has basically been full geographical diversification.
What assets will you continue to bet on in 2026?
To begin with, more of the same; That is, as long as we do not see how the issue of the United States is resolved.If it goes towards an economic reacceleration or a deeper deceleration, we believe that the bet continues to be diversification and being outside the United States as much as possible, and once that is clearer, we will see.
But We are going to enter 2026, with the same bets that we have for 2025.
Outlook for next year
If nothing breaks, it could be a year reasonably good.
That is to say, the growth process is being strengthened in the eurozone towards rates that may already be above potential. Japan It’s still going very well. In USA The hope is that the period of deceleration will be temporary and then an acceleration. There is the unknown of Chinawhere we believe that although they are resisting, they will once again have to make fiscal stimulus measures so that their economy does not slow down.
And if we put all that together, well, it could be one year. 2026, reasonably attractive. I think that with more, it seems a bit ironic to say, more top given the bit of decline we had in spring and subsequent recovery, but it has really been the only episode of volatility, so the year has been very calm.
I think that next year may have more sawtooth, because in the end there is a certain drainage of liquidity and that can affect the markets. With which, it may be a more uncomfortable yearin the sense that we have more peaks and more valleys, but not a bad year.