If you haven’t lost money this year… you’ve probably missed out on something much worse: winning. While the ddeposits offered ridiculous returns and the inflation kept nibbling purchasing power of money of the mattress, the main financial assets have assisted in the wings of a rally synchronized. Equities, gold, bonds, Asia, Europe, United States, consumption, health, etc.
Source: Carlos Arenas Laorga
In economics, one of the most treacherous concepts is opportunity cost: what you stop gaining by not making a decision. This year, that cost has been as visible as it is annoying. And it is not the year in which it happens, but another year… Because while some assets have risen more than +50%many investors were still waiting for a correction, which did not come.
Does that sound familiar to you? the market is at its maximum, it will go down? Well this year it didn’t go down. It went up more. In fact, the great stock market indices accumulate double-digit revaluations. The Nasdaq, the S&P 500, the Nikkei, the EuroStoxx… even bonds have brought joy after difficult years.
And we’re not talking about big bets or choosing the most sophisticated fund of the year. We talk about just being inside the market.
Many savers hide behind prudence: “I prefer not to take risks,” “money is safer in the checking account.” But, this supposed security is an illusion: the money standing still is not neutralloses value.
Source: Carlos Arenas Laorga
And 2025 has made it clear. If you had 10,000 euros in January and you left it in your account, today you have practically the same… but with a lower real value. Meanwhile, who invested in a diversified portfolio of funds, even conservative, has obtained more than respectable returnsin some cases higher than 10%. And if we do not count the effect of the devaluation of the dollar, we are talking about +20-30% and in Spain +50%.
It’s not about getting the best time of the year right or choosing the next Nvidia. It is about assuming that, in the long term, the markets tend to reward the constant and disciplined investor. And trying to predict the perfect moment to enter is equivalent to playing roulette, but, furthermore, as long as you don’t put the ball in you keep losing.
This year has proven it (again): those who were invested since the beginning of the year, simply with a passive and global strategy, They have obtained more than good returns. I’m no longer telling you if you’ve done it with actively managed funds. Even the most defensive profiles, with some fixed income, have ended the year positively. Scare with the tariffs, but recovered. And so much. Falls of -20% in a single month, but we ended the year with +50% in Spain.
Is it a good time to invest? The answer is that always wasand it always is if your horizon is the long term. We are at maximums. But last year too… Yes, there is political uncertainty, wars, elections… But that’s always the context. The world is never quiet. If you wait for the perfect moment, you’re going to keep missing out.
This year cash has been the riskiest asset. Because it has kept you out of one of the best moments of the cycle. Not because of its volatility, but because of its opportunity cost. Not because of what you lose in euros, but because of what you stop earning.
As investors, we need a change of mindset. The risk is not the specific fall of the markets. The real risk is not meeting your financial goals: not being able to retire, not helping your children, not maintaining your quality of life.
So yes. 2025 has been another great year to be invested. And another lost year for those who were not.
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