José Luis Cava begins the year 2026 by pointing out that Bitcoin “is waking up from its timidity.” At the time of recording the video, the cryptocurrency is trying to overcome “a straight bearish trend that has been running since the beginning of October.” After removing a “plug”, consider that, if it exceeds 90,000, “I would most likely try to target 100,000”where you observe option sales call.
Beyond the short term, the central question is what to expect for 2026. At the outset, he states: “I I expect a bullish year for hard assets, for the S&P 500, for Bitcoin, for gold, silver.”. Its main argument is liquidity. Western governments do not control public spending and must renew large volumes of debt, so a recession would be very damaging. For this reason, he believes that the United States and China are going to try to relaunch economic activity.
Cava quotes Bessent, who states that “they prepared the banquet in the year 2025” to “celebrate the feast in the year 2026.” In the United States, GDP growth facilitates debt refinancing and reduces the debt/GDP ratio. In China, banks are trading at 0.6 times their book value, reflecting that the market is pricing in economic weakness, which reinforces the common interest in growth.
In the United States, tariffs can generate revenue if the economy grows. In addition, the Treasury has 900 billion in the Fed that will be spent in the real sector, along with tax cuts and deregulation.
Added to this is the reduction of the banks’ supplementary own resources coefficient, which would free up 210,000–220,000 million and allow between three and five trillion in additional credit. Investments in artificial intelligence, of the order of 120,000 million, would generate structural demand. The Fed, for its part, will maintain a QE of 40,000 million per month and will continue to inject liquidity, like the 70,000 million on the last day of the year.
With all this, the expert expects strong growth in 2026, a rise in the S&P 500 and hard assets. Estimate a 10% earnings growth and a possible index target at 7,800although it warns that there will be volatility to “sweep us” before continuing the rise.