-
From 2028 onwards, a new great impulse for Bitcoin could be expected.
-
Bitcoin could become the most valuable financial asset in the world.
Since its birth in 2009, Bitcoin (BTC) has gone through multiple stages of skepticism, euphoria and consolidation, which has been growing.
With its evolution through the passage of time, More and more voices agree that Bitcoin’s path to one million dollars (USD) no longer seems like a utopia. It is even possible to think that such objective could be achieved before this decade ends.
Let’s see why below:
1. A cyclical pattern that is repeated: Bitcoin tends upwards after each halving
Bitcoin has historically shown an alternation of bearish and bullish cycles linked to the halving event, which occurs every four years and reduces the broadcast of new coins. This scheduled scarcity mechanism has served as a pricing rebounded catalyst.
In the previous three cycles, the price reached its maximum point between November and December of the year after such an event. This was in 2013, 2017 and 2021. If this pattern is repeated, the peak of this cycle could reach the end of 2025, since the most recent halving occurred in April 2024.
Therefore, and if the same behavior is repeated, The next bullish cycle would have its culminating point towards November or December 2029since the next halving is scheduled for early 2028. In this sense, this event could bring, as historically did a new wave of demand that drives its price.
At the moment, the historical maximum price recorded BTC was USD 109,300 just over three months ago, in January 2025. And, although it backed up until the USD 73,000 generating fears of end of the cycle, then recovered the USD 98,000, strongly breaking the bassist trend, as seen below.
Price increases in previous cycles show exponential growth. After the 2012 Halving, BTC went from USD 12 to more than USD 1,100 in 2013. After the occurred in 2016, it rose from USD 650 to almost USD 20,000 in 2017. And after 2020, it jumped from USD 8,000 to USD 69,000 in 2021.
Although the yields have decreased in percentage, the nominal growth remains considerable, which supports the possibility of seeing Bitcoin at higher levels in this cycle and more than USD 1 million in the following.
«I suspect that we will soon reach new historical maximums in Bitcoin,» said Capriole Investments fund manager, given the strong price recovery. «Unless we see a significant change (for example, a daily closure below USD 91,000), it is difficult to obtain a more bullish technical graph than this,» he added.
2. The dollar loses purchase power
Another reason to project a bitcoin in seven -digit prices for the next cycle is that Fíat money, including the dollar, which is the main value reserve currency, loses purchasing power. A million dollars within four or five years will not represent the same wealth as today.
In an environment of persistent inflation and monetary emission without brake, each Fíat currency unit is worth less. This makes the price measured in dollars of other assets store to rise, so it would not be surprising that Bitcoin’s price remains upward over time.
The perception of «million dollars» must be adjusted to this new reality: it is not so much that Bitcoin is revalued magically, but that national currencies are devalued rapidly. Next, the loss of purchasing power of the dollar can be graphical during the last century.
This also implies the possibility that more people invest in Bitcoin for their different essence of the Fíat money that contributes to its rise. Having a fixed supply and not being able to arbitrarily issued, it becomes a shelter against the loss of value of traditional moneywhile attracting demand.
3. More monetary mass, more liquidity: a wind in favor for Bitcoin
Related to the above, The accelerated growth of the monetary mass globally becomes another key impulse for Bitcoin. Since the financial crisis of 2008 and, even more, after the 2020 pandemic, central banks have shown that printing money is their first reaction to any sign of economic stress.
The continuous money impression makes more capital of investors can enter the Variable Income Markets in search of maintaining and maximizing its value. This makes Bitcoin continue to capture demand over time.
Given this scenario, the CIO of the investment company Maelstrom, Arthur Hayes, said the last week that Bitcoin’s price could increase to USD 1 million by 2028, in the middle of a generalized rebound in actions and cryptocurrencies. As justification, he argues that the United States will have no choice but to print more money, as already happened in previous rounds of quantitative flexibility, to keep the economy afloat.
«It is possible that we are at the cusp of a change towards quantitative flexibility,» said the Panther Capital investment company, which highlights this key aspect for Bitcoin’s appreciation.
Deepen that, after a tightening period, stimulus measures are being launched, with lower interest rates, both in Europe and China, which expects the United States to resume. With the drop in bond performance, the natural response of the US Central Bank will be to provide liquidity support, says Panther Capital.
«If we draw the global liquidity against the price of Bitcoin, it is quite clear that the main bitcoin price movements have been during times of growing liquidity,» says the company. This can be seen in the following graph that shows the price of the currency and the M2, key measure of money in circulation.
According to this context, Dan Morehead, founder of Panther Capital, provides that the price of Bitcoin reaches at least USD 740,000 for the Halving of 2028, driven by adoption. Currently, 95% of global financial wealth has not yet entered the market, so it sees great growth potential.
4. The big players get on the ship: upward institutional investment
In the first years of Bitcoin, it was common to think that only small investors or technological enthusiasts invested in this digital currency. That idea has become obsolete with the entry of players of all kinds into the market, especially in this cycle.
With the launch last year of the Bitcoin quoted funds (ETF) in the United States, both traditional retail investors and companies have invested in asset. Currently, these instruments accumulate more than USD 16,500 million, as the next graph exhibits.
Cathie Wood, the founder and executive director of the Ark Invest asset management company, said a year ago that, although I previously anticipated that Bitcoin arrives at USD 1 million for 2030, he hopes that this figure is reached before. The reason is that the approval of the ETF mentioned have facilitated their access. «I think that was an important milestone and has advanced the schedule,» said the directive.
In an update of your projections last month, Ark Invest predicted BTC by 2030 to USD 1.2 million as a base case already USD 2.4 million if there is a more bullish case. In the worst case, it expects that at least it will be in the USD 500,000 by then, as Cryptonotics reported.
Market growth also makes different governments currently studying whether BTC buy as a strategic reserve. The inclusion of holdings in this asset in the American national treasure, from illegal case seized, has intensified this scenario.
Therefore, the purchase of Bitcoin by governments could unleash greater generalized demand for the asset, as well as press Bitcoin at higher long -term prices.
5. Bitcoin as «digital gold»: an increasingly accepted narrative
Finally, Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as a digital value reserve strengthens its long -term use case. Although in the beginning it was promoted as an alternative payment system, Over time the most powerful narrative has focused on its role as «digital gold» or «refuge».
Like gold, Bitcoin is scarce and is mine decentralized. But in addition, BTC has various advantages among which are more easily divisible, portable and verifiable; It can be transferred instantly to any part of the world without intermediaries and has a known and limited total offer, which eliminates uncertainty about its future emission.
For Hong Fang, president of the OKX cryptocurrency exchange, Bitcoin is a 100 times better solution than any other asset. «Whatever your culture, religious background, language that you speak, we all have a fundamental need: we want a safe way to store our money and transfer our value over time and space, and we want to do it without the need for an intermediary of ‘trust’. That is what Bitcoin offers, ”he argued.
With these attributes, in the midst of their growing adoption, more and more sovereign heritage managers and funds begin to consider Bitcoin as a stable and strategic component for a diversified portfolio. This facilitates the possibility that Bitcoin rises to more than seven figures for the next cycle, if this narrative gains power.
While the road to one million dollars by Bitcoin is not guaranteed, more and more structural and financial factors point in that direction. The repetition of cycles, the erosion of the value of the Fíat money, the monetary expansion, the institutional adoption and the validation of its narrative as a digital gold configure a conducive environment for this to happen.
Discharge of responsibility: The views and opinions expressed in this article belong to its author and do not necessarily reflect those of cryptootics. The author’s opinion is informatively and under no circumstances constitutes an investment recommendation or financial advice.