After a 2025 marked by tariff scares, rebounds dazzling and a concentration extreme around artificial intelligence, the big selectors agree that 2026 will not be a year for complacency. The common message is clear: dispersion between regions, sectors and assets reopens a scenario where active managementthe planning and the risk control They will make a difference.
Santiago RubioDirector of Investment Strategy at CaixaBank AM summarizes the feelings of many by stating that ““What has paid the most has been being outside the US”. For the strategist, the initial shock due to Trump’s tariffs and the subsequent market amnesia hide a worrying background: an effective increase in consumption taxes in USA and one deceleration which could be accentuated in 2026. Therefore, it insists on maintaining a high geographic diversificationwith special emphasis on Europe, Japan and markets that have been left off the American radar.
From a more constructive vision, Tomás García-PurriñosSenior Investment Fund Manager in Santander Asset Management believes that the central scenario is that of a «soft landing» that would allow the economic cycle to be prolonged. Your recipe is based on three pillars: renta variable as an engine of growth, credit carry strategies to capture attractive returns and oro as a diversification anchor against geopolitical and fiscal risks.
Javier de Berenguer, fund selector and market analyst at Mapfre Inversión adds that 2025 has been the year in which the number of winners has increased: Asia, European banks, utilities or gold have contributed decisively to the portfolios. For 2026, the positive bias towards equities is maintaineddriven by the expansion of artificial intelligence, but warns of an environment more complex for fixed income and the risk posed by the narrow spreads in high yield.
In a similar vein, but with greater conviction, Alejandro Vidal, Head Investment Manager de Deutsche Bank Spain is clear: “If I had to choose an asset for next year, I would choose equities”. Trust that Europa continue to positively surprise and USA continue to capitalize on technological development, despite the political noise and demanding assessments in some areas.
For Diego Fernández Éliceschief investment officer of A&G Global Investors, 2026 will be a year to flee from extremes: variable income yes, but active, not indexed and without rigid biases. After a 2025 dominated by emotional management, he defends continuing to participate in the bull market with diversified portfolios protected against alternative scenarios, convinced that the industry has demonstrated its value when it was most difficult to maintain discipline.
That prudence is shared by Víctor ÁlvarezDirector of Variable Income at Tressis, who warns about the excesses around artificial intelligence. He warns that the market will begin to closely examine the real profitability of investments in data centers and semiconductors, which may lead to rotations towards forgotten sectors such as basic consumption, health and quality values.
The message is reinforced with the vision of Miguel Ucedainvestment director at Welzia Management, for whom “2026 will not be for everyone”. After a dizzying 2025, he believes that blind investment via ETFs will lose traction against stock pickingin an environment where technology valuations are tighter and where fixed income is beginning to show signs of exhaustion after years of falling rates.
Beyond equities, José Lizán, president and manager of the Rreto Magnum Sicav fund in Team Funds (Good Driver) introduces a piece that many managers consider essential: industrial metals and energy. In his opinion, the great hidden derivative of AI is not in the chips, but in the physical infrastructure that supports them: copper, aluminum, zinc and steel, along with growing energy demandwill be inevitable protagonists of the 2026 portfolios.
At the patrimonial level, Eloy González de la Peñafinancial advisor at iCapital remembers that no market scenario replaces comprehensive planning. Financial education and coherence between financial, real estate and business assets are, for him, the true differential factor to navigate volatility and regulatory changes without losing your way.
For his part, Manuel MendivilCIO and coCEO of the asset management division of Arcano bets on a clear geographical diversification: Europe, emerging markets and the United States. He believes that the Old Continent begins a decade of real investment thanks to fiscal stimuli, which emerging markets will be favored by the weakness of the dollar and that the US will continue to be relevant despite the evaluations of the “magnificent seven”.
Partially breaking the consensus, Juan Gómez Badainvestment director of Avantage Capital anticipated a 2026 “more inflation and more growth”driven by expansive monetary and fiscal policies, and points out very specific opportunities such as Argentine fixed incomewhere it expects rating improvements and compression of risk premiums.
Finally, Pedro Palenzueladirector of Palenzuela Inversiones EAF focuses on Federal Reserve and the possible replacement of Powell as one of the great catalysts of the year. With a scenario of lower rates in the United States and divergent curves globally, he insists that optimism must always be moderate and accompanied by a active risk management.
2026 looks like a less homogeneous and much more demanding year. The era when it was enough to replicate indices seems to be coming to an end. Active management, real diversification, emotional discipline and estate planning They become the pillars to navigate an environment where artificial intelligence, geopolitics and central banks will continue to set the pace. Whoever knows how to select well and stay the course will have a lot to gain.
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