Bitcoin (BTC) has accumulated five consecutive months of negative returns and has fallen 45% from its all-time high of $126,000, recorded in October 2025.
This March 6, 2026, bitcoin is trading around $68,277, after falling 4% in the last 24 hours and lose the psychological support of $70,000.
Bitcoin’s bearish streak comes from the last quarter of 2025 (where it had a loss of 23%) and was accentuated in the first two months of 2026 so far, where the digital asset registered an additional decline of 20%.
This correction could be considered «normal», as it is the usual pattern of cycles governed by the Bitcoin halving. The most recent halving took place in April 2024, followed by the record high of $126,000 in 2025, aligned with the typical bullish phase of the year following the event.
The history of bitcoin teaches that every rise is followed by a deep correction; In fact, previous cycles after the halving recorded drops of 87% (2015), 84% (2018) and 77% (2022).
A relevant fact is that, historically, bitcoin price bottom comes about a year after hitting cycle high. Following this pattern, the date of a possible bottom would be placed at the end of this year, to then have a period of lateralization and subsequent rise towards, at least, the previous maximum.
The 2026 scenario reflects this pattern of post-peak «hangover», exacerbated by an adverse macroeconomic and geopolitical situation.
However, various analyzes suggest a possible break with the traditional four-year pattern. The firm Fidelity Digital Assets suggests that this time it could be different; since he considers that The typical cycle that investors have become accustomed to may no longer be applicable in the current context.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors complicate recovery
And, speaking of the current context, we cannot fail to mention that a war is being fought in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
Added to this is the deterioration of the US labor market, with job losses in February and the unemployment rate at 4.4%, which has driven the price of bitcoin down.
Although crises are often raised as scenarios for using bitcoin as a safe haven asset, the price indicates that it is not currently being perceived as such in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, which could increase the fall (or at least moderate the rise).
However, the debate on the future of the price of bitcoin presents conflicting positions.
Debate between caution and bitcoin price recovery
Vugar Usi Zade, COO of MEXC, maintains that “bitcoin continues to behave as the structural anchor of the entire digital asset market,” since defines market sentiment, liquidity cycles and institutional confidence, as reported by NoticiasVE.
In this framework, he suggests that the asset “could approach the $150,000 range towards the end of 2026.” With sustained institutional inflows, adoption of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, and favorable global liquidity conditions, “a move toward the $200,000 level in early 2027 is a realistic scenario,” according to the MEXC executive.
In the opposite direction, Carolina Gama, Bitget’s director for Argentina, calls for caution. He explains that “the combination of macroeconomic uncertainty and contraction in the derivatives market suggests that bitcoin could remain sensitive to new geopolitical developments in the near term.”
He adds that “higher volatility environments usually generate selective opportunities, which requires discipline, a careful reading of the scenario and adequate risk management.”
From technical analysis, trader Tomás Vendel interprets the current movements of bitcoin as a sign of definitive exhaustion of the cycle. He states that “we are in a massive distribution phase” and that “those slow bounces towards $71,000–75,000 are not strength, but rather a liquidity trap designed to absorb the last optimists before the real crash.”
For the analyst, “the structure is bearish and the market always clears the euphoria before the true capitulation”, in line with the historical post-halving pattern.
And then…. who is right? Has the price of bitcoin already hit bottom or is there still more to fall? Of course, it is impossible to predict it with complete certainty. As has been seen, the opinions of specialists are varied and contradictory to each other.
The direction of the price will depend on which narrative prevails between those who sell in the face of global instability and those who buy in search of protection from the traditional financial system. This duality between panic and technical protection suggests that the ultimate price direction It will depend on which of these two forces manages to prevail in the general market sentiment..