The month of August, which was expected «quite volatile and complex», ended up being «an extraordinary month,» says Pablo García, from Divacons. «The Standard & Poor’s, the Nasdaq continue to mark maximums, as well as gold, silver and bitcoin», with a «scarce volatility for what was expected», despite the numerous open fronts: «Ukraine, Israel, the tariff war and now even France.» Support came, to a large extent, for business results that «have been very good and have supported the markets to continue rising.»
However, Garcia warns that September «is traditionally a bad month», With the end of the results season and the attention dump into macroeconomic data. In this context, «87.6 % expect that first cut of types of 25 basic points» by the Federal Reserve, after the four declines of the ECB. Even so, the most recent data «still suggests that the issue of inflation has not been canceled» and that tariffs «obviously continue encouraging a little more inflation.»
The expert also points to Tensions in the debt market. «The Tirse of the French sovereigns have gone 3.58%, Italy at 3,655%», which places France in «a fairly complex case for this infection effect», although a debt crisis «would perhaps be too much.» Remember that «we have a lot of debt (…) at the time we have some punishment in some country, everything can collapse as a castle of cards,» and warns that, as happened in 2011 with Greece, a similar episode in France «could collapse» the system. «You have to be very alert because it is worrisome, it’s disturbing,» he insists.
In this context, Refugio assets gain prominence. «The shelter assets always have to be in mind and there is a percentage that we must assign,» says Garcia, who considers that, if the tension increases, «we will see that gold will continue to mark maximums.» In addition, «China has continued buying gold, there is more gold in the coffers of the central banks than even foreign exchange reserves.» Although he acknowledges that «for the moment there is not so much fear in the market,» he warns that this perception «can change in a matter of hours or days.»