A truce in commercial tensions and a season of positive results in the US have returned the optimism among investors and carried out in the last hours to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to erase the losses accumulated in 2025. Are we facing a possible change in trend in US markets?
In the short term, I think so. We are facing a trend change in Wall Street. I remember that just a couple of weeks ago we commented that it was key to observe how the indexes reacted when facing the proportional fibonacci correction level of the entire previous fall. It was a determining technical point: if they managed to overcome it strongly, the following natural objective would become the area of historical maximums, practically in all indices. It is true that there are exceptions, such as the Russell 2000, which is still away from those levels, or the semiconductor index, which has not yet recovered so much, but if the technological continue to lead the market, it would not also be strange to see a relevant rally in the latter. Now, the technical signal seems clear: in the short term, we have seen a trend turn with the intention of recovering the previous upward movement. The great unknown will be what happens when facing the historical maximums: will they be able to overcome them to start a new upward stretch or rather we will see a consolidation phase? In my opinion, the quarter could be somewhat confusing because the market will be very aware of the next results in which we will see the real impact of tariffs and the high volatility that we have lived, both at the macroeconomic level and in the business expectations themselves.
If we talk about concrete levels: S&P 500 has 5% left to achieve its historical maximums, a perfectly attainable objective; to Nasdaq 100, just 4.5%, demonstrating the strength of the recent rebound; And Dow Jones, the most lagging, still has 7%, but could also reach them without problem. An important technical level to be monitored in the S&P 500 is the origin of the bullish hole on May 12, located around 5,670 point; While the index remains above that area, the most likely scenario remains the recovery. In the case of Nasdaq 100, the equivalent level is at 20,160 points. While both indices respect these supports, the market seems determined to continue recovering land. And if they reach the historical maximums -which, I insist, it seems most likely -, it will be time to assess whether we have strength to continue climbing or if we enter a consolidation phase.
The technological values of high capitalization that make up the «seven magnificent» have led the recovery of the market during the past month. It is a great change with respect to the beginning of the year. Can the Magnificent seven continue leading the American stock market rebound?
Without a doubt, there have been values within the seven magnificent who have continued to do it very well, such as Netflix. But if we really trust that this will continue to rise, right now of these magnificent seven would discard Apple and Alphabet, since they have shown the worst relative behavior with enough difference with respect to the rest. But if we observe Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Nvidia … the evolution has been very solid. Not only are they titles to keep in portfolio, but some could even be candidates for new purchases at this time, taking advantage of the possible additional pull that still remains to the market. In this sense, of the Magnificent seven, those that I see with greater purchasing potential right now are Amazon and Meta, and, for those who have a more adventurous spirit, Tesla is also recovering very interesting levels.
I do not believe that we are facing a paradigm shift that forces us to abandon the technological sector, much less. We already commented when the environment was more adverse: for me, the future of variable income remains technological. And not only the future of the market, but also the global economic future, especially in companies related in some way to artificial intelligence.
Now, you also have to look beyond. The revaluation potential now seems greater in more traditional sectors, such as those represented by Dow Jones. So we probably also find good opportunities there. In any case, we no longer talk about a mere recovery from the minimum, but of a clear resumption of the previous upward trend. And in that context, why not try to take advantage of it?
In Europe the markets are undoubtedly upward. However, there are still some dimensions to reach … especially in the euro Stoxx. Resistances to take into account
Yes, it is evident that the tone of the European market is upward. In some cases, we could even say that they are in free up. The best example is the Dax, which practically has no resistance ahead; He is trying to consolidate clearly above his historical maximums, which would be a very powerful technical signal. The same goes for the IBEX 35, which in graphics with dividends is also in the area of historical maximums, led thanks to the excellent behavior of the banking sector. In fact, if we look at the European banking sector index, we see that it is attacking a key area around 200 points; If you manage to clearly overcome that level and confirm it, we could attend a new upward stretch, even after the verticality of the recent movement. Right now, if we review the great Spanish banks of Ibex 35, practically all are in historical maximums, with the exception of Banco Sabadell, which nevertheless quotes in areas that were not seen since 2008 or 2009. The behavior of the sector is simply being splendid. Of course, we will have to be attentive: if the banking sector index fails to confirm above those 200 points and begins to go back, the panorama could change, at least in the short term.
As for the Euro Stoxx 50, he still has a tour. It is approximately 7.5% of its historical maximums. It is more fundamentally lagging with the weakness of some sectors with great weight in the index, such as luxury and automotive, which have penalized their behavior. In addition, the banking sector, which in Spain has a very important weight, does not have the same weighting within the Euro Stoxx.
Is it then still time to invest in European banks despite being at such high levels?
At the moment, yes. But it is a sine qua non condition that the European banking sector index clearly confirm above 200 points. If that occurs, if that breakup is consolidated, we must continue to trust the banking sector. Now, if instead of confirming that level, the sector begins to hesitate, to show doubts or cut from the current area, the strategy should be rethink. That is why I insist that it is worth waiting before resuming a clearly buyer approach: wait for the sector to solve that level of 200 points. If he does, the bullish potential is broad, not only for the Spanish market but also for other European values. For example, Deutsche Bank is showing excellent technical behavior.
After having put an end to the Ibex results season (with the exception of Inditex that will be presented in June), and with the consequent movement of the corresponding values, do you see any with a clear surveillance option to buy?
Right now I would be a bit to the expectation of the banking sector. Even so, from a purely technical point of view, Banco Santander and Bankinter have a huge pint of continuing. In the Spanish market I would also highlight IAG and Atresmedia. In the European market, the good tone of Deutsche Bank stands out, and would also include Telecom Italia and Stellantis that, despite their latest specific corrections, maintain a good background structure, and perhaps L’Oreal. Now, I believe that where there are more and better opportunities at this time it is in the US market, precisely because of that potential route that still have many values until they reach their historical maximums. And there I would highlight names such as General Electric, Alcoa, American Express, Boeing, Nike, Walt Disney, Amazon and Meta. For more dynamic profiles, Intel has just broken over the roof of an equilateral triangle, with a projection that could take it to the $ 26 area and currently quotes around 22.56, so the potential is there. And if we are looking for something even more speculative, Aurora Cannabis also has just broken medium -term resistances and is above 200 sessions. Carnival is another name that looks good technical.
As always, the market will end up issuing a sentence, but I think that all these values that I just mentioned have very interesting structures to monitor closely, keep in portfolio or even take positions if the context confirms it.
Beyond the variable income, do you see opportunities in other assets right now?
For fixed income, honestly, I see nothing that is sustainable from the buyer side. The truth is that it seems that the transfer of money from the fixed income to the variable income is already underway, and that shows. The bonds, both European and American, continue to fall, especially in the short sections of the curve, and that clearly weakens its attractive investor at this time.
As for gold, it is still a good long -term strategic option, but right now I think that at these levels it has to consolidate and you have to let it breathe. Technically, I think I could seek support in the $ 3,170; From there, if we see a stabilization, we could raise an entry again.
Oil does not seem an interesting option right now. He is facing an important medium and long term resistance, between 64.50 and $ 66. As long as that area does not exceed, the route is very limited, and I do not see attractive to enter these levels.
Of the assets that I usually follow, the one that most caught my attention is now natural gas. He is now making a kind of pullback to the key zone of $ 3.60. Technically, it maintains a clearly bullish structure and I think it will end up breaking above 4.50. If it does, the following objective would be in the fibonacci setback areas of the entire fall from maximum in the 10 dollars. We talk about ambitious objectives: 4.80, 5.80 and $ 6.80. So, without a doubt, it can be a very interesting option. Of course, the great challenge here is to manage the risk well. Natural gas is a very volatile underlying, and if you enter the current level, you have to be especially careful with positioning and Stops. It is not for all profiles, but for experienced investors and a clear strategy, it can be an excellent opportunity.