On betting site Polymarket, users are betting on the possibility of a national bitcoin (BTC) reserve being created in the United States this year. So far, 65% of bettors consider that the coming Donald Trump government could establish this BTC treasury.
This bet has collected more than $129,300 since its creation on December 31, 2024. Positive expectations for the formation of this bitcoin treasure increased by 38% in a matter of hours, after the odds reached 48% ending on January 16.
As stated on the platform, this market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government has any amount of bitcoin in its reserves at any time between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2025. does not occur, the market will resolve to “No”.
The bet specifies that the US government confiscating bitcoin does not count as having reserves of the currency. Also, that the main source of resolution will be the official information of the US government. or the Federal Reserve, “although a consensus of credible reports will also be used.”
Betting on platforms like Polymarket not only reflects public interest, but can also serve as an indicator of the probability of future events. This is because collective bets tend to reflect distributed information and knowledge of a multitudeoften resulting in more accurate predictions than those made by individual experts.
Bettors, driven by financial incentives, research and analyze data to make informed predictions, turning these platforms into event forecasting tools. with a certain amount of precision.
Among bettors’ comments, there remains an optimistic feeling that President-elect Donald Trump enact the creation of this reserve. User pixls expressed: “Dear Jesus, this is my main wish for 2025, please make it come true.”
Another user, BitBrain, noted that bitcoin seizures do not count as reserves under the terms of the bet, although he noted that if the hundreds of thousands of BTC held by other government entities are transferred to the Treasury Department, “they will no longer be bitcoins.” confiscated by the government, they will become part of the American treasury.”
A topic in full swing
The issue of bitcoin reserves is in full swing, especially with Donald Trump about to take office. There is speculation that he could establish this reserve within his first 100 days in office, a prospect that specialists such as Dennis Porter have mentioned.
Bitcoin reserves could benefit the United States in several ways. Primarily, they would strengthen the country’s position in the cryptocurrency market, possibly stabilizing the dollar and providing a new store of value in times of economic uncertainty. Besides, could encourage innovation and technological adoption within the country.
This interest is not unique to the US, as other countries have shown similar interest in establishing cryptocurrency reserves. Furthermore, within the United States, at least 8 states have expressed clear interest in BTC reserves, as reported by NoticiasVE. The creation of a national reserve could further boost these initiatives at the state level, creating a domino effect that could transform the country’s digital economy.
The bet on Polymarket reflects a growing and optimistic expectation about the possibility of the United States positioning itself as a pioneer in the official adoption of BTC through a national bitcoin reserve. Time will tell if these predictions come to fruition, but for now, the cryptocurrency community and punters are watching and trying to make money off of the incoming administration’s every move.