José Luis Cava remembers that The largest number of options on Bitcoin in its entire history expire, which forces us to pay special attention to the evolution of the price. He explains that the Deribit platform concentrates between 80% and 85% of the Bitcoin and Ethereum derivatives market and that at nine in the morning, Madrid time, most of the contracts had already expired, while those traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange would do so in the afternoon.
After expiration, The price of Bitcoin has reacted calmly. The analyst points out the $90,000 area as a key level, where a bearish trend passes. If that level is exceeded, it is most likely that a new bullish leg will begin. Until then, many dealers had hedged their options exposure by buying or selling futures, which acted as a stabilizing force.
With the disappearance of these contracts, the price is released, which can now move more freely according to the inflow or outflow of capital. Also The so-called “wall” of put options located between $87,000 and $85,000 has been eliminated, area where operators used to buy to cover risks.
It poses three scenarios: The first, and most likely in his opinion, would be the surpassing of $90,000 with objectives between 95,000 and 100,000.. The second scenario would be a fall below 87,000 towards 84,000-85,000 and, if that support is lost, even up to 80,000. The third would consist of a lateral consolidation movement. If there were a drop to 80,000, it would be necessary to monitor whether that level acts as support to confirm the formation of a bottom.
Cava considers the bullish scenario more feasible because he observes historical highs in assets such as gold, silver and the S&P 500, driven by the growth of the money supply and global liquidity, although this growth is slowing down.
Beyond Bitcoin, analyze Chinese monetary policy by comparing the evolution of the yuan against the dollar and against Gold. Given China’s enormous trade surplus, it would be logical that the yuan would appreciate strongly against the dollar, but the chart shows a downward trend and only a slight rebound within a lateral movement, which is attributed to possible political agreements between China and the United States.
However, when looking at the yuan against gold, a strong depreciation can be seen, which is interpreted as a clear sign that The Central Bank of China is injecting liquidity massively, estimating up to $1.4 trillion in the last year and a half. This leads him to think that Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and gold will continue to rise in 2026. However, he warns that a correction could occur in the first or second quarter before the increases resume, so he recommends following the evolution day by day.