Bitcoin entered the distribution phase. What will happen next?

The bitcoin (BTC) market has entered a distribution phase, according to on-chain research firm Glassnode. What does this mean? This is a stage in which sales of the digital currency predominate, putting downward pressure on its price.

“Accumulation Trend Score”, an on-chain analysis indicator, has dropped to 0.21. “This suggests a net selling by most investor groups,” notes Glassnode on January 8.

Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score tracks the size of investors’ balance sheets and their changes month to month. A score close to 1 indicates accumulation (purchases) by large entities, while a score close to 0 reflects distribution (sales) of these actors.

Under this tracking, the indicator is painted blue when an accumulation phase prevails and orange-red when it represents a distribution phase. Meanwhile, the closest intermediate colors distinguish which trend it is closest to.

As can be seen in the following graph of the indicator, it has gone from blue to orange at the beginning of 2025. In this way, demonstrates the beginning of a distribution stage the bitcoin.

“This marks a notable change after the accumulation phase that began in mid-October,” highlights Glassnode. During the bitcoin rallies in November and December, participants steadily increased their holdings, driving the price up.

The sales trend is currently identified throughout the market, although It predominates especially among those who have the most bitcoin. This is shown by the Trend Accumulation Score by Cohort indicator.

According to this metric, ultra-large investors, with more than 10,000 BTC, have been selling since September, accelerating this trend in the last two weeks. AND whales, which are those who have between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, have entered a growing sales phase a fortnight ago, as the graph shows.

As for smaller investors, they have also moved on to a sales stage, but of less intensity. This can be seen in the following graph.

This indicator, which separates investors by the size of their possession, distinguishes in red those who are selling or not buying and in blue those who are buying. Intermediate colors, meanwhile, indicate lower levels of such tendencies.

Bitcoin distribution phases are part of bullish trends

The current distribution landscape explains the price decline that bitcoin has seen. The coin is currently trading around $93,000, which is 13% below the all-time high of $108,000 it recorded three weeks ago.

However, it should be noted that Market distribution periods and price drops of around 20% are normal within a bullish trend of bitcoin, as shown in the following graph.

Therefore, this does not indicate the end of the current bullish cycle. In general, This type of phenomenon corresponds to a moment of profit taking by investors.to ensure returns.

Glassnode has highlighted that bitcoin has historically reached the end of a bullish cycle when the MVRV surpassed the 3.2 level. This indicator, which reflects whether the market is overvalued or undervalued, has not yet reached such a line in this cycle.

Currently, the MVRV is at 2.4, as can be seen in the graph above. If reaching the 3.2 level typical of the end of the cycle, the price of bitcoin would rise to USD 132,000, Glassnode has highlightedas reported by NoticiasVE.