Bitcoin (BTC) has exceeded $ 100,000a psychological barrier that has not reached for more than two months.
This week’s impulse is not explained by a single cause, but by a conjunction of factors: the ambiguous discourse of the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who did not offer definitions on the interest rates (but not closed the door to be cuts this year); the signing of a commercial agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom; and the expectation of a possible advance in negotiations between the United States and China, scheduled for this weekend.
In the following graph, provided by the TrainingView platform, Bitcoin has moved since January 1, 2025. At the time of this publication, the digital currency is less than 10% of reaching its historical maximum and, perhaps, going to look for new heights.
Everything seems to indicate that the market is anticipating something big. If the conversations between the United States and China even achieve a preliminary agreement to descale the «tariff war», Bitcoin could be triggered to the area near $ 110,000 (where I would probably find a strong resistance). In fact, it is precisely this commercial «war» that has kept BTC stagnant in recent months.
On Wednesday, the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, offered a press conference in which he repeated the mantra of recent months: wait and see.
There were no interest rate cuts, but neither a more aggressive posture that could cool the market. In a context in which a hardening of discourse was feared due to the latest inflation data, The passivity of the Fed was interpreted as a positive signal by investors.
The market found no enthusiasm in what Powell said, but in what he did not say. The absence of threats allowed confidence in the assets considered «risk» to be reactivated.
In that context, Bitcoin, which since 2020 acts as a barometer in front of US monetary policy, replied with a strong rise and quoted above $ 100,000.
In communication with cryptootics, Denise Cinelli, Coo of Exchange Cryptomkt commented:
The rebound comes after the Federal Reserve decision to maintain unchanged fees and anticipate a possible decline towards the second semester. The market interprets this signal as a turn to more flexible monetary policies, which drives global liquidity and favors risk assets such as bitcoin.
Denise Cinelli, Coo de Cryptomkt.
The next day, as cryptootics reported it, the president of the United States, Donald Trump announced a «historic commercial agreement» with the United Kingdom.
This pact implies the opening of new markets for US products for about 5,000 million dollars and higher tariff revenues for the United States.
The United Kingdom, meanwhile, will see reduced the average of its import rates from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US will increase tariffs on British products from 3.4% to 10%.
Although the market reacted positively to this announcement, the most relevant was what Trump hinted: If conversations with China advance, they could reach agreements. And with that, yes, I would change the whole panorama.
This Saturday the expected trade negotiations between the United States and China begin in Geneva. The Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, and the commercial representative Jamieson Greer will attend by the US. China will be represented by the Vice Prime Minister He Lifeng.
According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is considering a significant reduction of tariffs, which currently reach up to 145% in some Chinese imports. The objective would be to reduce that percentage below 60% as the first step, and sources close to the Chinese government say that Beijing could match that measure.
Although conversations are expected to be exploratory in principle – more focused on complaints that in immediate solutions -, the mere fact that both parties feel dialogue is already interpreted by the market as a sign of relaxation.
Says Scott Kennedy, a Chinese economy specialist at the Wahington Strategic and International Studies Center:
«The United States and China must find a way to coexist or will disconnect, which will have enormous consequences for the global economy and world order. Therefore, the importance of these negotiations cannot be overestimated. ”
Scott Kennedy, specialist in Chinese economy.
If some kind of agreement is achieved, even limited, confidence in global trade could increase and release a large amount of capital that today remains out of caution.
Bitcoin is an asset considered, in general, «risk.» But, it has a particular logic. In times of geopolitical or financial uncertainty, it can act as a refuge. It has also shown that it responds very positively when global tensions are decompressed, since capital flows are usually directed towards more speculative investments when fear goes back.
During the last two months, the tariff climb between the United States and China has generated a wave of risk aversion that affected all kinds of assets, including BTC. Uncertainty about import costs, consumer prices and world economic growth promoted many investors to adopt more conservative positions.
If a gesture of distension is specified this weekend, Bitcoin could benefit on several fronts:
- Increased liquidity towards risk assets.
- Reduction of inflationary fear in the United States.
- Stimulus to international trade and, therefore, global economic growth.
- Strengthening of Bitcoin’s perception as a refuge in times of structural change.
And, beyond the macroeconomic environment, Bitcoin has its own reasons to sustain its upward trend. The Halving of April 2024 reduced the broadcast of new BTC in half, and if the pattern of previous cycles is repeated, there is still a long phase of appreciation ahead.
To this is added the growing institutional adoption. Companies continue to accumulate BTC, and interest in Bitcoin ETF in cash is firm. Bitcoin’s narrative as a reserve of finite, transparent and resistant digital value manipulation continues to gain strength.
With the price again at $ 100,000 and less than 10% of its historical maximum (registered in January 2025, around 109,300 dollars), The scenario is served for a possible break.
But everything depends, to a large extent, on what happens this weekend in Geneva. If the two largest economies in the world manage to reduce even part of the tariff tension that has shaken markets since April, Bitcoin could take advantage of the envy to reach the historical maximum zone.
Iván Paz Chain, director of Trading Different, in dialogue with cryptonoticia explained that, «in the long term, liquidity above $ 110,000 continues to increase, which increases the chances of seeing new historical maximums for Bitcoin.»
For all this, This weekend will be key and decisive. The world will be looking. And cryptootics will be reporting and explaining what happens.