Bitcoin up or down? Divergences grow on the direction of the price

After a week marked by a slight rebound in price, bitcoin is now at an inflection point. The analyzes show divided positions on the immediate future.

Although the leading cryptocurrency slightly overcame the fall that took it to the USD 60,000 range, trading at the close of this edition around USD 69,000, volatility remains a constant.

Such a situation is generating uncertainty among investorsand leads to polarized attitudes that in turn affect the price.

Analyst opinions too vary drastically. Most focus on the topic of volatility to talk about the near future. While others focus on long-term Bitcoin cycles.

There are analyzes focused on cycles

Among those focusing on cycles is Fidelity global head Jurrien Timmer, with a bullish stance. He argues that “a drop to just $60,000 would be relatively mild for a bitcoin winter.”

Timmer thinks that 60,000 is the support zone. «As bitcoin matures, its ups and downs should be less drastic. Nobody knows if USD 60,000 will be the minimum, but I think so,» he wrote in X.

The analyst states that this figure is possibly the minimum amount that BTC reaches in this cycle that began after the last halving, which occurred in April 2024. Hence, expect new spikes.

Based on the mathematical harmony of past cycles, which of course does not guarantee future cycles, I believe that any future wave could take us to new highs.

Jurrien Timmer, director global de Fidelity .

This emphasis on cycles is supported by businessman and investor Anthony Pompliano, for whom the sharp declines they are normaly they should not scare because they always anticipate increases and new historical highs. In his opinion, what matters is that BTC «always grows in the long term.»

«High volatility creates opportunities for investors. «Who cares if it falls in the short term?» he expressed during an interview within the framework of the event. Bitcoin Investor Weekwhich took place in New York this week.

Other analysts emphasize volatility

More cautious analyzes warn of “structural weakness” that is putting pressure on the price. The Glassnode firm points out that the bitcoin price «is on the defensive.»

They highlight the fragility in the convictions of recent buyers. They also highlight performance in perpetual futures, where open interest and premiums have compressed.

There are traders who are paying a premium to hold long positions in Bitcoin futures, particularly the CME (preferred in the United States). Although many traders outside the US are reducing their positions, especially on platforms offshore like Deribit.

The trend is indicative of stronger demand for leveraged long exposure among US investors (showing confidence). Meanwhile, the market offshore gives signs weakening.

“The increase in the spread between the CME and Deribit basis acts as a real-time indicator of geographic risk demand,” explained NYDIG head of research Greg Cipolaro. Point out contradictions in behavior of investors.

Contrast between those who sell and those who persist

Most analyzes reveal the existence of investors more likely to sell. Among them are the buyers spot (cash) and new investors.

However, the data also points to different behavior among a significant portion of ETF investors. As NoticiasVE has reported, institutional capital and investors who operate through traditional brokerage accounts They act as a “strong hand” that absorbs volatilitywithout giving in to the panic that buyers may enter spot.

In this way, institutional investors adopt a more strategic approach. Some whales even took advantage of the drop to accumulate bitcoin at lower prices. There are also retail investors who are adopting a “wait and see” strategy, waiting for clearer signals before making important decisions.

Despite this, risk appetite is decreasing, according to general estimates from the Bybit exchange. Consequently, they see investors reducing their exposure to the digital currency, seeking refuge in other assets.

This is how, in the face of uncertainty and contradictory predictions, short-term caution prevails. Although this week’s slight rally generates some enthusiasm, the BTC price is low compared to all-time highs.

In the midst of these divergences, analysts agree that volatility will continue to be key in the market. Investors must be prepared to face both opportunities and risks.