Bitcoin will reach at least $285,000, according to analyst

The takeoff of bitcoin (BTC) to new all-time high prices since last week highlights strong demand that could continue. According to cryptoasset trader and analyst Juan Téllez, this upward trend could reach values ​​that are difficult to imagine.

“I was amazed,” says the specialist in a market report published on November 11. “I have made a prediction of the price of bitcoin with fundamentals, without smoke, and I do not believe the result,” he adds.

According to their estimates, The price of bitcoin will reach a minimum of USD 285,000 in this bullish cycle and a maximum of USD 600,000. “I know it’s hard to believe; At least it’s hard for me to believe,” he clarifies. But, as a defense, remember that, in each BTC cycle, few people believed the price peaks it would reach.

Its projection is based on an analysis of the macroeconomic context and the flow of capital that can enter bitcoinwhether spot or from ETFs (exchange-traded funds).

Until the US elections, there was still a lot of pessimism in the market, he highlights. “Many (bearish) bears were filtered anticipating the end of the world,” he states and shows the following screenshot of a news story as evidence.

“Many analysts predicted a strong economic crisis, and that sentiment seems to be changing since Donald Trump won the elections,” the specialist distinguishes in a video on YouTube. “What happens is that the market now sees imminent expansive policies and therefore growth,” he details.

This can be seen in the performance of the Russell 2000 stock index (RUT), which compiles shares of small capitalization companies in the United States, compared to the S&P 500 (SPX). Unlike the first, the latter follows the actions of the 500 most relevant companies in the country.

This index was in a consolidation range for over two years as the S&P 500 hit all-time highs one after another. However, in recent weeks, especially since Trump won, the Russell 2000 index has broken higheras seen below.

“This tells us that investors are having a greater appetite for risk, since they are putting money in low-capitalization companies, that is, higher risk,” highlights Téllez.

The specialist details that, when this occurs after a period of consolidation, it gives the signal that an economic expansion is coming. “This is the time when the markets go up a lot,” he maintains.

In relation to this, consider that BTC ETFs, which saw record daily demand following Trump’s victory, marked the beginning of institutional entry. “The beginning of the beginning,” he emphasizes in his opinion, given that such instruments have 0.11% of the USD 48.5 trillion managed by the main asset managers shown below.

How much could this percentage increase? “That information is key,” exclaims the specialist. For him, a logical and conservative number is around 3%, according to forecasts from some representatives of these funds. Such a figure would mean that USD 1.4 trillion more would enter BTC through ETFs.

Below, you can see which are the main asset managers, of which BlackRock stands out as the largest. This entity also issues the largest bitcoin ETF.

However, if other factors are analyzed, the percentage of capital that could enter BTC would be even more. “As we know, the fiat money printer does not stop working, and obviously this would increase the funds managed by the largest managers and, therefore, also the 3% that we have estimated,” says Téllez.

“What interests us as bitcoin holders is the printing of fiat money, because that would make the price of bitcoin revalue,” he adds. This is not only because it would involve greater liquidity available to the markets, but also because it can attract demand for bitcoin due to its scarce supply and decreasing issuance.

More than USD 2 trillion would enter bitcoin

With this scenario, believe that some companies will follow the MicroStrategy modelthe listed company that holds the largest amount of bitcoin as a store of value. Michael Saylor, its founder, recently announced that he will purchase an additional $46 billion in BTC over the next 3 years. Meanwhile, remember that Microsoft shareholders will soon vote on whether to invest in this digital currency.

According to their data, currently, around 70% of the money in BTC ETFs is from retailers, that is, from retailers. Therefore, in addition to the institutional entry, it would be necessary to add flow from this group during the “BullTrump”. This is what Téllez points out by combining the word “bullish” in English with the surname of the president-elect.

Added to this, Demand for bitcoin as a strategic reserve could be fueled by governments. “El Salvador is a grain of sand compared to what would happen if the United States starts buying BTC as a reserve, and obviously other countries would follow,” he highlights. Also, it’s worth noting that Trump has already said he plans to pursue this.

Although this represents optimism for the market, “it is difficult to estimate how many more dollars of entry all this could mean for BTC,” says Téllez. It must also be understood that some of these factors may take several years to occur.

Therefore, from a measure that he considers conservative, the analyst multiplies the estimated entry of the largest managers by 1.5. That reflects a total inflow of USD 2.1 trillion into bitcoin, which, if added to the current capitalization of the currency, allows us to identify the price it would reach.

How much will bitcoin grow in this cycle?

To project the relationship of market capitalization to price, what is known as a “multiplier factor” is usedexplains the specialist. “Basically, history tells us that the capitalization of global financial assets grows about 2-5 times faster than the net flow of dollars coming in during bull markets,” he says.

Therefore, according to the specialist, it is necessary to multiply the estimated entry by 2 or 5 and add it to the current capitalization (USD 1.5 trillion at the time of calculation). This results in the possible capitalization that bitcoin will reach, according to this analysis.

Taking this into account, in a base scenario of multiplier by 2, the capitalization of bitcoin would be USD 5.7 trillionalmost four times larger than the current one. This would take the price to USD 285,000. On the other hand, he warns that, in a more bullish case with a multiplier by 5, the capitalization would reach USD 12 billion and, consequently, the price would reach USD 600,000.

However, it should be taken into account that, in the midst of this panorama, the relative strength index (RSI) has risen above 70. Exceeding such a level in this metric, which measures the impulses of price movements, reflects that bitcoin may be overbought. Consequently, a price relapse could be unleashed.

This reminds us that, beyond the bullish expectations that currently dominate the market, it is crucial that traders are prepared for any scenario. Otherwise, you may lose money. Therefore, everyone must do their own research to operate and foresee the risks involved.