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The Altcoins could not have as much ascent as in previous cycles, according to Nátoli.
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«The Bull Run of the cryptocurrencies did not end,» says the businessman.
Historically, each Bitcoin’s upward cycle (BTC) has resulted in a season in which the Altcoins (cryptocurrencies without counting BTC) give greater yields. However, this phenomenon could, better known as Altseason, does not happen in the cycle that Bitcoin experiences currently.
This is suggested by the Argentine analyst, Agustín Natoli, in a video posted this week on his YouTube channel «Young Investor».
The specialist Base this projection on the tariffs established by Donald Trumpthe president of the United States, to the products from Mexico, Canada and China.
Both Bitcoin and the Altcoins fell to the tariffs, in correlation with US actions, although they then recovered slightly when negotiations with the two neighboring countries began.
«When you put a tariff on a product, the one that sells that product does not morphs the percentage of the tariff, it is transferred to the price,» says young investor. That is to say, generates inflationwhich reduces the probability of loss of interest rate, clarifies in this regard.
Based on the CME Group survey, the market was discounting a cut of interest rates in June to 425 points and another in December to 400 points. But, today only one in the year at 425 points.
Because? «Because more inflation is being expected,» explains Natoli. While Jerome Powell, president of the Federal Reserve (FED), the Central Bank of the United States, has planned two rates cuts this year and Trump said it was going to put pressure to accelerate the decline, the market has advanced to the possibility of That this does not happen with the rates.
For the «young investor», The central here is the reaction of cryptoactives. In his opinion, Bitcoin’s setback was totally normal and logical after the climb in recent months. On the other hand, something very different was what happened with the Altcoins, as with Ether, the cryptocurrency of Ethereum, which fell more than 25% only in a few hours.
“Why do I want to make a distinction? While the entire cryptocurrency market in general moves in the same way, clearly we are seeing that there is a kind of separation of what Bitcoin is with the rest, ”he details.
According to its analysis, this is not only due to the success of the Bitcoin Bag) funds, but also to the growing interest of some governments to adopt it as «strategic reserve.» «It’s starting to see a demand that did not exist before,» he exclaims.
If this is added that BTC is a scarce asset, which has Halving every four years that reduces its broadcast by half, «we are seeing that Bitcoin is starting to take off from alternative cryptocurrencies,» he exclaims. And it looks very clear in the fact that it has a long time has a very high dominance in the cryptoactive market, as the following graph exhibits.
Besides, Every time Bitcoin rises in price, it is more than the Altcoins, something that has not been seen in past bullish cycles where these have higher performance seasons for the expansion of demand. Also, every time it goes down, it is not as much as the Altcoins. «Then he is always gaining ground with respect to alternative cryptocurrencies,» says Natoli.
In addition to this, he considers that the problem they are facing today cryptocurrencies is that the interest rate of the United States and the world is high. This differs from the previous bullish cycle, occurred in 2021, when it was low to rescue the economy from the pandemic coup, as seen below.
«That made a lot of money around the market,» he says. At that time, the abundance of liquidity and the low cost of loans facilitated investments in risky projects. On the other hand, it contrasts that it is not taken so much risk due to the high rate.
According to the specialist, The greatest expectation of inflation and lower of a reduction of rates fully sticks to alternative cryptocurrencies. «The only thing that could make the Altcoins begin to rise is that the interest rate is lowered, so that the risk of asking for a loan to invest in projects of greater risk and of greater volatility,» he says.
«Bitcoin does not impact all this type of measures so much because it already runs on the other hand,» he says. “Today is another type of asset; It does not depend so much on the monetary policies of the United States, or what happens around the world, ”he says. Although he believes that, obviously it will have volatility and impact, it is not as dependent as the Altcoins are.
Anyway, thanks to the negotiations between Trump with Mexico and Canada, Rates have been leisurely for a month. «There are expectations that until then they can reach an agreement that does not apply these rates, and therefore there is no inflation and the perspective of more than one interest rate cut this year returns,» explains Natoli.
«The Bull Run of cryptocurrencies did not end,» warns Nátoli
As cryptootics reported, The market undone part of the fall before the pause of rates. “What is my point of view? I believe that the Bull Run or Bull Market (Corrida or Alcista Market) of the cryptocurrencies did not end, ”says young investor.
However, «I am more and more on the side of the theory that Bitcoin will end up rising in the long term rather than alternative cryptocurrencies, unless there are strong casualties of interest rates,» he says.
«If the interest rate continues to keep high, I doubt that we have a very strong rise of alternative cryptocurrencies, because remember that Altcoins are very risky projects,» he insists.
He maintains that Bitcoin, although it continues to be seen as a risk asset, is no longer what it was And today it has other fundamental ones. According to his perspective, «runs on another lane: that of the strategic reserves of governments and ETFs demanded by BTC to be able to have as support.»
«Obviously if there is a decrease in interest rate, Bitcoin will benefit and will rise even more, but I doubt that the Altcoins have an impressive performance with high rates,» the specialist culminates.
This forecast goes hand in hand with the consensus of the specialists who estimate that Bitcoin’s upward trend will continue this year. Meanwhile, its price is maintained around 10% below the historical maximum of USD 109,300 that registered Donald Trump’s presidential assumption day three weeks ago.