The price of Bitcoin (BTC) could be fired in the coming months, driven by the increase in global liquidity and macroeconomic dynamics between China and the United States.
According to analyst and trader Juan Villaverde, two possible scenarios profile a bullish future for the digital currency, With a potential of up to $ 150,000 if the governments of both countries reach a commercial agreement.
Global liquidity: the rise engine
Villaverde emphasizes that global liquidity has grown in a sustained manner since the beginning of 2025, without significant signals.
This phenomenon, he explains, Bitcoin markets and cryptocurrencies tend to impact a delay of approximately three months.
«Bitcoin has barely touched the background,» says the analyst, who foresees an «abundant increase» in June, which would grant several months of bullish impulse.
A graph that compares global liquidity (black line) with the price of Bitcoin (red line) illustrates this trend.
While liquidity continues to rise, Bitcoin barely begins to recover, which suggests that the rebound has space to grow. However, this impulse is not exempt from macroeconomic risks.
THE SHADOW OF THE COMMERCIAL WAR
The escalation of commercial tensions between the United States and China has added uncertainty to global markets.
In February 2025, after assuming the presidency, Donald Trump fulfilled his campaign promise and imposed 25% tariffs on products from Mexico and Canada, and 10% to those from China, as Cryptonotics reported.
China, in response, applied 15% and 10% tariffs to US goodssuch as coal, oil and agricultural products, on February 10.
The dispute did not stop there. In March and April, mutual tariffs intensifiedreaching 145% by the United States and 125% by China.
This commercial war generated volatility, inflation and disruptions in supply chains. Although a 90 -day temporary pause was agreed in tariffs to other countries and dialogues with more than 60 nations began, uncertainty persists.
Bitcoin: Refuge against the storm
The impact of these tensions was reflected in the price of Bitcoin. In April, when Trump announced reciprocal tariffs, the digital currency fell to $ 74,000.
However, his perception as an active refuge promoted a rapid recovery. That same day, the price reached $ 78,000, and for April 24 it quoted $ 91,000. On the current day, it quotes at $ 96,300.
Villaverde compares this dynamic with 2021, When global liquidity grew until March 2022, but Bitcoin began to fall in November 2021 Due to expectations of rates of federal reserve. In 2025, the key factor is not rates, but the change rate of the Chinese yuan.
China’s «pain threshold»
China faces a deflationary crisis similar to that of 2008 in the West. To counteract it, the Popular Bank of China (PBOC) could print billions of yuan, but this would significantly weaken its currency in global markets, a scenario that Beijing seeks to avoid.
Villaverde identifies a «pain threshold» between 7,30 and 7,35 yuan per dollar, level at which China stops monetary impression to protect its currency.
The previous graph shows how the yuan exchange rate against the dollar has recently fluctuated, approaching the «pain threshold» between 7,30 and 7.35 yuanes per dollar. According to Villaverde, this level has been a red line for Beijing since 2022, taking pauses in monetary printing to stabilize the currency. The graph also points out that «a strengthened yuan would unleash billions of liquidity dollars in the world,» What could happen if China and the United States reach an agreement that allows a controlled devaluation of the dollar against Yuan.
This China intermittent policy has also influenced the Bitcoin market and cryptocurrencies. Villaverde points out that, after the minimum price of Bitcoin in November 2022, vibrant rebounds followed by prolonged pauses have been observed, reflecting fluctuations in Chinese monetary printing during that period. Although the current graph does not cover that moment, it illustrates how the «pain threshold» remains relevant in 2025. Tariff uncertainty and a possible commercial war add complexity to this panorama.
Two scenarios for Bitcoin
Villaverde raises two possible results for Bitcoin. In the first, If three -digit tariffs persist, Yuan will not recover, the growth of global liquidity will stagnate And the Cryptocurrency Mercado will lose strength.
In this case, Bitcoin could reach $ 110,000, exceeding the historical maximum last January.
The second scenario is whether Washington and Beijing reaches an agreement, since it would allow a controlled devaluation of the dollar against Yuan. China could printed yuan massively to rescue its banking system. This would injected billions of dollars into the global economy, promoting digital assets. Under these conditions, Villaverde estimates that Bitcoin would reach at least $ 150,000 for October 2025with potential to overcome that figure.
While Bitcoin is consolidated as a refuge in the face of uncertainty, investors carefully observe negotiations between China and the United States. As Villaverde points out, «the thing is starting to get interesting.» The outcome of this commercial plot could not only define the price of Bitcoin, but also the course of global markets in the coming months.