The meeting was attended by four specialized voices in the real estate sector: Mikel Echavarren, President and CEO of Colliers Spain, Julián Salcedo, Doctor of Economics and President of the Real Economist Forum of the College of Economists of Madrid and José Luis Ruiz Bartolomé, General Director of Conurbia Invest.
One of the most important issues to highlight was the possible existence of being before a real estate bubble and José Luis Ruiz He defended that this story corresponded to «people close to the government to exculpate the real problem.» However, he acknowledged «although there are symptoms that remember previous stages of strong increases, the origin is different.» He stressed that the market drags a deficit of at least 100,000 homes a year, which adds to the more than 400,000 accumulated, and that the real imbalance is the insufficient offer. He also criticized the Housing Law and other proposals such as the forced reduction of 40% of the rental prices and warned about the current situation stating that «we have to be prepared because complicated times are coming.» In addition, he urged communities and municipalities to facilitate the creation of offer as soon as possible.
Mikel Echavarren He pointed out that those who talk about real estate bubble have no experience in the real estate sector. For him, what happens is an «avalanche in demand» and highlights that political measures have limited effect and that there are local actors from cities such as Barcelona or San Sebastián de los Reyes that do not favor construction for political reasons.
Julián Salcedo He clarified that, although the situation differs from 2008, today there are also bubble features: «A persistent and generalized increase in the price of housing that moves it away from its fundamentals.» The increase in the soil and the shortage of supply explains it, but stressed that, in addition, the house remains a refuge value worldwide. In addition, he recalled that the purchasing capacity of the Spaniards currently does not help for the purchase of housing.
Insufficient government measures
Another of the issues to be addressed was the set of measures proposed by the central government recently. Echavarren He affirms that these measures are only worth to «capture the attention of the media for a day and a half» that the rental with option to purchase is very small and that it is contradictory «to ensure the collection of income when on the other hand you allow the illegal occupation.»
Salcedoon the other hand, he insisted that we have been in rounds of meetings and debates without real solutions. He recalled that from the forum of real estate economists and the College of Economists have repeatedly pointed out that «the solution involves repealing the Housing Law or introducing great modifications.» After more than two years of application, he stressed that measures such as tensioning areas or price limitation in cities such as San Sebastián, Navarra or La Coruña have shown not to relieve the problem. From his point of view, the problem remains «basically of offer.»
About the draft Housing PlanEchavarren valued it positively for his ability to generate protected housing at affordable prices, but qualifies it as «a drop in the ocean.» He set the example of Madrid and said that «2,000 protected homes could be built in just two months or three months if there is no political block.»
Salcedo Consider that the plan is «very worked» and that it includes all the necessary aspects, which includes initiatives such as flexliving, aid to promoters and measures for both purchase and rent. However, it questions some conditions, such as the obligation that housing is “for life” or the requirement that the autonomous community contributes 40% of the funds, remembering that 14 of the 17 communities are governed by the Popular Party and that the real application will depend on the political will of each region.
Ruiz He highlighted the potential of Law 3/2024 to convert offices in homes, although he regretted that the municipalities have been too restrictive in their application. As he says if there were greater flexibility “we could duplicate or even triple the supply”, a key factor to balance supply and demand in an increasingly tensioning market.
Buy housing A profitable investment?
Buying a home as an investment has traditionally been one of the most recurring investments in the family since it was a tangible asset that «does not need much knowledge.» Another of the questions that were addressed in this meeting is the profitability of investing in this type of assets.
Echavarren He said that buying to rent «is the least profitable decision» against other assets – «you can buy a bonus and generate 2–3%» – and that real estate investment for individuals is not as simple as it seems: maintenance costs, occupation risks and regulatory frameworks that deteriorate net profitability.
Salcedo He disagreed and said that although investing in housing is not easy, it is still a refuge value to deal with inflation.