The consumer trust index and the short -term expectations indicator have fallen to the 98.3 and 72.9 points respectivelywhich has put Wall Street analysts on alert, since the former has suffered its greatest fall from the Covid pandemic. 19.
Analysts have indicated that the fall of the former reflects a growing pessimism about economic conditions in the United States in the future. With inflation and the potential impact of the commercial war as main catalysts exacerbated by the tariff policy of Donald Trump.
Regarding the second, if it remains Too too time under the 80 points I could anticipate a recession.
Las Retail sales a one has fallen 0.9%, which also reflects the instability present around the policies that Donald Trump could take in his second term.
Not forgetting the mass layoffs in government entities and commercial tensions that add greater fear among investors.
Analysts are also attentive to the next measures taken from the Federal reserve.
On the other hand, investors see a Greater profitability in 10 -year Treasury bonds than in Variable Income The Wall Street.
He S&P 500 a one has risen 1.2% In what is going on the year, while the bono a one has risen 5.6%. We did not see this scenario from the outbreak of the Puntocom bubble.
According to data from Bloombergthe bonus has a profitability of the 4.29%, in front of the 3.72% which offer the S&P 500 in the next 12 months.
Experts point out that this Crossing yields invites caution, since the bags of the bag may have gone too far.
This scenario can be resolved in three different ways:
- A strong increase in the expected benefits of actions that are adjusted to the increase of the rate offered by the index
- A drop in the profitability of bonds due to the increase in purchases
- A sharp drop in the stock market that also adjusts the benefit offered by actions