The debate is not new, but has gained strength in recent months as The tariff war It seems to climb in rhetoric and proposals. Economic repercussions could be devastating if tariffs are maintained over time, and many wonder if there is no more than economical political calculation behind this policy.
What’s behind Trump’s tariff strategy
Donald Trump insists that his commercial policy seeks «MAKE LARGE AMERICA AGAIN”But behind the patriotic discourse a measure is hidden that can have counterproductive effects for the US economy. The tariff warby raising the prices of imported products, It ends up directly affecting the average consumer and more expensive life.
The idea that other countries pay tariffs imposed by the United States is a myth widely discredited by economists. Actually, Those who assume the greatest weight of these tariffs are US companies that import products, and, ultimately, the citizens who consume them. In an economy so based on domestic consumption, any prices distortion can have chain effects.
Recession as collateral damage … or as a goal?
Many analysts wonder if a recession caused by an aggressive commercial policy could be a Trump tool to justify other political movements. By generating economic tension, I could try to hold external actors such as China, the European Union or even the Federal Reservein order to reinforce his nationalist speech.
The scenario is not crazy. Already during his previous mandate, Trump blamed China of multiple economic evilsreal or imaginary, and used that narrative to consolidate political support between industrial sectors affected by globalization. In this context, a recession would not only be collateral damage, but possibly one more argument to sustain its protectionist agenda.
What does recent history say
The consequences of Trump’s tariff war are not hypothetical. Between 2018 and 2019, its first rounds of tariffs generated a slowdown in key sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing industry and retail trade. Millions in government aid were necessary to compensate for farmers’ losseswhile US companies reported higher operational costs.
Although Trump defends that the pressure on China ended in a «favorable» commercial agreement, The concrete benefits for the United States were limited. The Covid-19 pandemia interrupted any definitive evaluation, but commercial tensions left scars that still, in 2025, have not been closed.
The real impact on American homes
Tariffs are not invisible taxes. Each measure of this type translates into an increase in the prices of daily consumption products, from appliances to food. If Trump reimpulses his permanent tariff war in this second mandate, the result can be a considerable inflationary pressure at a time already delicate for the economy.
This effect is combined with a potential brake on investment and international trade. American companies tend to delay their expansion or production decisions if the commercial environment is uncertain. And if supply chains are affected by restrictions, production times are lengthened and costs rise, feeding a negative spiral.
What really Trump looking for?
The key question is still in the air: Does Donald Trump are interested in provoking a recession in the US because of his tariff war? The answer can be in the political approach of your strategy. Trump has shown that he is willing to assume economic consequences in order to feed his “United States” and consolidate its electoral base.
A recession, far from weakening it, could be used as a political propaganda tool. With an economy in difficulties, it could reinforce its message that the country needs «more protectionism», «more control» and «less globalism.» Despite the data and warnings of economists, for its most faithful electorate the speech continues to work.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world cautiously observes in an economically tragic week. Because in a globalized world, each tariff not only affects the country that imposes it, but also its allies, its commercial partners and, ultimately, global economic stability.
In this set of tensions and narrative, Trump seems determined to advance, even at the expense of a new recession.