José Luis Cava points out that, in addition to oil, there is another strategic raw material to analyze the conflict: agua. As explained, citing a Bloomberg article, the CIA considers that water is a key resource because 100 million people who depend on desalination plants live within the range of Iran’s missiles and drones. If the power plants that feed them were attacked, this population could be left without water.. Therefore, he considers that these attacks They would be a clear sign of escalation of the conflict.
He states that the price of oil WTI remains between 70 and 80 dollarsso the situation “has not gotten any worse” and we can speak of “tense calm.” However, he highlights that oil derivatives are rising, especially after the attack on a refinery in Qatar that supplied distillates to Europe. That facility will take approximately two weeks to repair and another two to return to full capacity, while China has banned the export of distillates.
In the financial markets he observes signs of calm: the VIX has not exceeded 30 and has fallen, and the MOVE also fell. This leads him to think that it is most likely that Iran will not take such a risky step as attacking electrical infrastructure.
As for the Kospiexplains that after a sharp fall it registered a rebound close to 10%, but interprets it as closing short positions and not as an influx of new money. It also stands out that this fall coincided with strong rises in Bitcoin, suggesting that some speculators have moved from Asian stock markets towards the cryptocurrency, supported by strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Regarding Bitcoin, he states that the correction was profound but that the medium and long term trend remains bullish. The price bounced at 60,000 and subsequently rose towards 74,000. The fall coincided with several factors: the Binance crisis, the liquidity crisis in software companies and the withdrawal of liquidity by the US Treasury.
In his opinion, panic and noise caused weak hands to sell, while strong hands bought, so considers it likely that “we have already seen the worst” in Bitcoin.
Finally, he warns that the rise in oil indirectly benefits Putin, because it boosts the price of oil from the Urals. If crude oil remains high for a long time, Russian public accounts would improve and the war in Ukraine could be prolonged