Dow Jones does not raise its head; fourth day of falls, pending NVIDIA and the Fed

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By Jack Ferson

Dow Jones does not raise its head; fourth day of falls, pending NVIDIA and the Fed

The DOW JONES index fell 530 points or 1.14% to 46,059.96 points. The most bearish value is Home Depot, which falls 3.82% after presenting results, while on the advancing side, Merck&Co stands out, with an increase of 1%.

The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 6,625.28 points, while the Nasdaq fell 0.91% to 22,502.39 points.

Wall Street is coming off a clearly bearish day yesterday, Monday, extending the correction at the end of last week: the DOW JONES lost 557 points, or 1.18%while the S&P 500 fell 0.92% and the technological Nasdaq fell 0.84%.

At the center of the debate are securities linked to artificial intelligence, given concerns about high valuations and the enormous capital investments that companies are making. In the eye of the hurricane is NVIDIA, the most valuable company in the world market, which will present its quarterly results tomorrow, Wednesday after the close of regular business.

“The market landscape has changed dramatically in recent weeks, as market reaction to AI has taken a sharp turn from rewarding growing spending on capital investments to increasing skepticism about new investments and future returns,” explains Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions. “If we add to this the high concentration of positions in traditional and systematic investment accounts, we have all the ingredients for a strong reduction in risk and a readjustment of the discourse.”

But “despite the fears, the AI ​​cycle is still valid and in good health, something that we hope NVIDIA confirms on Wednesday,” Melson clarifies. “This certainly does not represent a bearish outlook.”

Along with concerns about AI-linked securities, investors are refocusing their outlook on the Fed’s next monetary policy meeting, scheduled for December 10. Currently, operators estimate a 44.4% probability of an interest rate cut of 25 percentage pointssignificantly lower than the greater than 90% probability that was estimated a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

In fixed income, always very sensitive to changes in monetary policy, today the yield on the ten-year US bond stands at 4.106%.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, the October Fed meeting minutesin which investors will look for new clues on future rate decisions. It will also be published on Thursday the nonfarm payrolls report and the unemployment rate for Septemberwhich could not be published last month due to the federal government shutdown.

One of the big names of the day is Home Depot, the first of the large retailers to present its accounts this week. The company has put on the table adjusted earnings per share of $3.74, below the $3.84 the market had expected. Regarding the income line, they did manage to exceed estimates, with a figure of 41.35 billion dollars that compares with the 41.11 billion expected.

The company has also cut its forecasts for the year: Home Depot expects an increase in annual sales of approximately 3% and a slight growth in comparable sales, which exclude the impact of one-time factors such as store openings and calendar differences. This contrasts with its previous forecasts, which estimated annual sales growth of 2.8% and comparable sales growth of 1%. Adjusted earnings per share will decline about 5%, compared to its previous forecasts, which called for a decline of about 2%.

In the coming days, the results of companies such as Target or Walmart will also be known, which for many years was the measure of consumption of American households.

Shares in drilling rig company Helmerich&Payne fall more than 8% after disappointing results. Helmerich and Payne reported a fourth-quarter loss of 1 cent per share, excluding one-time items, while analysts had expected a profit of 23 cents per share. Revenue did exceed analysts’ expectations.

Amer Sportsthe company behind brands like Salomon and Wilson, soars 8% after beating market expectations with its quarterly report. Earnings of 33 cents per share, excluding one-time items, beat the 25 cents per share expected by analysts. Revenue of $1.76 billion also beat the $1.72 billion forecast.

In other news, Barrick Mining is moving positively following a report from the Financial Times that activist investor Elliott Management has acquired a significant stake in the company. According to the British media, which cites sources familiar with the matter, Elliott welcomes the possibility of Barrick splitting into two companies.

The risk aversion that has hit Wall Street in recent days is also noticeable in the price of Bitcoin. The popular cryptocurrency falls below $90,000 for the first time in the last seven months. Bitcoin has erased its 2025 gains and is now down 30% since topping $126,000 in October. At this time, it returns to the level of $91,000.

In commodity markets, oil prices edge lower as supply concerns ease with the resumption of loadings at a Russian export hub, briefly disrupted by a Ukrainian drone and missile attack, and as traders continue to assess the impact of Western sanctions on Russian flows. US West Texas oil futures fell 0.27% to $59.70 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent oil fell 0.42% to $63.94.

The exchange rate between the euro and the dollar was also quite stable, with the single currency rising a slight 0.06% to 1.1597 dollars per euro.

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