Wall Street starts the week with worry after oil price rebound above $100although with a subsequent setback, due to the conflict in the Middle East and its implications for the world economy. Despite this the DOW JONES Ind Average, S&P 500 y NASDAQ 100 they rise to the close by a +0.50% to 47,740 points, +0.83% to 6,795 points and +1.38% to 22,695 points respectively.
In the midst of the energy crisis, the Ministers of the main G7 economies stated that they would consider resorting to strategic oil reserves of the International Energy Agency if necessary according to Yahoo Finance. What brought some calm to the controversial statements of Donald Trump that the high costs were «a very small price to pay» for security.
For greater concerns, the macrostrategist Alfonso Peccatiello warns about the bond market. Which could be entering another phase of forced deleveraging according to Yahoo Finance.
In his own words: “When you start attacking the very basis of the financial markets (the bond market), the situation can quickly get complicated.”
The problem centers on popular hedge fund tradessuch as swap spreads and Treasury bond transactions, which involve purchasing Treasury bonds through repurchase market financing and hedging them with futures or swaps. Since these trades rely heavily on leverage, even small market movements can trigger margin calls and forced sales.
These sales may already be reflected in price action. Long-term Treasury yields have been rising, even as investors typically seek safety during geopolitical crises. This indicates that investors could be unwinding their positions completely instead of calmly pivoting towards safe-haven assets.
In corporate news, software actions They fell slightly, but experts continue to analyze the situation of the sector that was severely compromised by the artificial intelligence or AI the last few weeks according to Yahoo Finance.
Since hitting bottom on February 23, the iShares Software ETF (IGV) has had positive results in eight of the last nine sessions.
The problem for bulls is that the underlying leadership of this market seems more consistent with risk reduction than with a new appetite for risk.
The large cap sectors that were most affected last week such as Materials (XLB), Basic Consumer Goods (XLP), Health (XLV) and Industrial (XLI) They are largely the same group that has held up best since the software peaked last September.
In other words, investors appear to be selling their winning long positions and buying back one of their largest short positions: software.
The only exception is the Energy (XLE), which continues to capture demand as crude oil and energy prices rise.
The software will eventually have its moment in the sun, but for now, IGV still looks vulnerable. If it rallies from now on, watch warily for any bounces, especially at key levels like the 50-day moving average near 93 or even the old breakout zone near the November lows of around 101.
Regarding economic data we had the The Conference Board Employment Trends Index for February with 105.37 compared to the previous 105.18 and February consumer inflation expectations with 3.0% compared to the previous 3.1%.
We also had 3-month public debt auction (T-Bill) with a yield of 3,605% already 6 meses (T-Bill) with 3,535%.
Among the winning actions we have Western Digital (+6.85% to 262.06 dollars), Sandisk (+11.64% to $588.73) and Caterpillar (+3.54% to $704.99)
Western Digita rises after the announcement of Vinva Investment Management Ltd. of an increase in its participation in a 737.5% during the third quarter, according to the company’s recent presentation before the US Securities and Exchange Commission or SEC shared by National Today. The institutional investor now owns 91,590 shares from the data storage provider, valued at 10.7 million dollars.
Sandisk rises after an improvement by the analyst consensus and a target price higher than the current price, according to Gurufocus. According to the consensus recommendation of 19 brokerage housesthe average recommendation is currently 1.9which indicates a superior performance. The rating scale goes from 1 to 5, where 1 means strong buy and 5 means sell.
Caterpillar climb after him target price increase by several analysts, according to Marketbeat. Wells Fargo increased its price target for shares 756 to 870 dollars and gave it a rating of «overweight» in a research report published on Wednesday, February 25. Oppenheimer raised its target price of 729 to 817 dollars and gave it a rating of «overcome» in a research report released Friday. Barclays increased its price target for shares 610 to 625 dollars and gave it a rating of «equal weight» in a report published on Friday, January 30.
Among the losing stocks we have Axon Enterprise (-2.60% to 559.06 dollars), Paramount Skyd Rg-B (-6.67% to $11.19) and Boeing Co (+2.64% to $225.02)
Axon Enterprises falls not because of a particular fact, but because a 25% last week. What may have prompted investors to sell to secure profits.
Paramount Skydance falls after seeing its debt rating lowered to “junk bond” after announcing the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery to a rating of BB+ on the part of Fitch. Since you will have to take a net debt of $79 billion.
Boeing falls because the airlines from the Middle East and Asia are suspending aircraft purchase negotiations as a 10-day war in Iran disrupts travel demand and sends jet fuel prices soaring, according to a report from Bloomberg News shared by Investingciting people familiar with the matter.
Before finishing with the rest of the quotes, Technical analyst of Investment Strategies, José Antonio Gonzálezshares with us an analysis of the Dow Jones Mini Future:
The Mini Dow Jones Industrial Future (YM) finds support near its long-term or 200-period moving average, identified in red and whose positive slope continues to reaffirm an unquestionable growing background structure that should cushion the spike in short-term volatility.
Currently, the daily Mini Dow Jones Future candle is registering a hammer candle with a broad lower shadow denoting renewed buying interest. However, we are proposing an isolated daily pattern that therefore requires the development of more daily candles to allow its confirmation. In this sense, it is important in future sessions to close daily candles above the bearish gap – resistance – of 47,517 points, whose closure would reinforce the context of change in bullish sentiment in the strictest short term, whose objective would be to test the viability of the decreasing resistance that starts from annual highs.
As long as we do not witness a gradual improvement in the price over the next few sessions, we must not ignore that the recent movement to break support, specifically the perforation of the important secondary or medium-term bullish channel, continues to project minimum objectives of theoretical setbacks located in the vicinity of 45,440 points and, whose fulfillment, must continue to be the scenario to prioritize in the short term as long as the price does not show us otherwise. Therefore, today’s session with the reaction of purchases is interesting, but it is premature to consider it a tertiary floor, but it is a start.
Mini Dow Jones Industrial (YM) future on daily scale with volatility (upper center chart), MACD (lower center chart) and trading activity (lower window). Source: ProRealTime and own elaboration.
Los Oil futures WTI caen one –4.10% at 87.17 dollars and the Brent -1.53% at 91.27 dollars.
He Oro falls a -0.18% to $5,149 per ounce and the Plata upload a +3.18% at $86.99.
The pair EURUSD falls a -0.03% a 1.1615.
Bitcoin upload a +2.67% to $69,019.
The 10-year US bond yield falls a -0.60% a 4.108 already 30 years -0.69% to 4,723.
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