In recent days we are seeing news about the commercial war between the US and the world … Central banks have a very important ballot in front and China and Australia have already lowered types, what should be the following movements in general?
The main movements probably both of the European Central Bank as of the Federal reserve In this year they are Type descents. It is more or less discounted, two drops of types in Europe at the end of the year and one or two drops of types in the United States in this year. It is what is expected and, above all, what they have to control are the issue of inflation.
The inflationobviously, in Europe it is a bit more controlled than in the United States, basically the problem of Europe is not inflation, it is growthwhich has half, more or less, of what the United States has now. And, probably, that makes inflation in Europe can lower some more. Although good, the main mandate is to control inflation, both in Europe and in the United States, of central banks. And there, I believe, unless there is some black swan or a topic that we do not control at this time, the topic in this year of continuing to lower interest rates is probably going there.
Where will the success of an investor happen in his portfolio right now?
What we always advise for investors in portfolios is, above all, Adapt it at all times to the market situation.
Right now one of the most important things that investors have to do of course is diversify. That is, let’s say, as the first investment law that long -term investments can have. Obviously we can never know what the market for both fixed income or variable income will do tomorrow, but to long term diversify And not only for fixed income or variable income, which also of course, but also in oroin raw materialsmainly gold, which gives you a little more stability the portfolio and also in real estate. But that is already the Spanish investor, of course, the issue of the real estate sector is quite clear.
Fixed rent and variable income. Within the Variable Income, searching markets not only in the American Market, also of course, has always been the main investment of investors in general, but also emerging markets and even within the European or American market. Sectors, now at this time, they could be a sector like Defense, with the investment so large that they are going to do both in Europe and in the United States are sectors that will be very benefited.
But the important thing is the diversification mainly, the adaptabilityI don’t tell you to change the entire wallet, but at all times change something, whenever it is recommended.
Where do you see opportunities for fixed income?
For fixed income, I would go more to Fixed Government Income, Corporate Income also Europeanalthough the types lately what they have done is to go down and the profitability is not like last year; and also some American corporate income. But above all, especially I would go to European and corporate mainly, in the maximum medium term 4 or 5 years you can find investment funds or bonds that have a profitability around the 3%-3,5%, 4% Annual that can give you a profitability above the CPI and quite good. Always with a bonus of good credit quality.
We are seeing Europe much better positioned than the US, but will this follow throughout 2025?
Until last year and even earlier this year we said that European bags They were going to rise and at the end in none of the previous years, the otherwise the American bags have been, especially the technological part that has risen much more than the European that has been very lagging.
Now in this year the opposite effect has passed, basically because of the Trump tariff policy Mainly, but also because it came from a much greater climb, above all, the part of Nasdaq and the technological part.
Now Europe has advantages and inconveniences Like everything. Right now the growth of Europe is half, practically, 1% is the growth forecast of Europe in this year compared to approximately 2% in the United States. With which, less growth obviously, but also has an important advantage that inflation is much less in Europe than in the United States, which will also notice a point in favor of course. And the investment in Europe I believe that with all this topic of tariffs it has made it much more dynamic than it was before. So, probably there is an advantage of Europe against the US, but it is also true that the business results of American companies are much better than those of European companies. In fact, the first quarter has been quite good in that; And then also, that they are not the results, but that American dynamism is much greater.
The counterweight, of course, is the inflationpolitics, especially tariff that creates a lot of uncertainty in the United States, much more than in the rest of the world and especially in Europe. So, I probably believe that Europe will continue to rise a little more than the US. I speak in general, then if we go to artificial technology or intelligence sectors, obviously, the American country there is the leader and probably continue to grow more.
How should an investor be protected right now?
One of the ways of protecting is diversify a lot, also have in all wallets what is 5% or 10% in oroin a very defensive product, above all, when there are falls as we have seen now. In this year, I think that gold has risen in what we have been in. So that is going to lower you a little volatilitybut about having it very diversified in many sectors including, of course, Real Estate.
And that, is what makes volatility somehow, that you will never have it with 100% control unless you are in a money market, which does not have riskbut profitability will be less with inflation. With which, it will not interest you, but it will make them lower the volatility of the portfolios, especially those that have great weight in variable income. So, I think, it would be diversifying and getting into some sectors that lower your risk a little.