There are many investors who are entering fashion assets to irrational valuations. That does not mean that they are not good in the future, but of course entering just because of that feeling of staying out is complicated.
In recent days we have seen maximums in Nvidia, Gold, Bitcoin or Indra, just to give some examples. All of them are rising for different reasons and even have foundations in the increases, but investors must maintain a balanced portfolio and not entering these assets at these prices.
Generally, if we look at funds, they tell us where the money of the institutional investor is going, and is currently clearly entering Europe. And for several reasons, such as the future expense in defense, much lower assessments than those of the US, very solvent and «value» style for managers ….
See according to the Bank of America survey where the money is going.
The money continues to enter Europe, which makes European and Spanish investors more than happy.
If we look a little more, we can see that, within Europe, they are the Small Caps where the money is entering and … where Spain certainly has many. See how in the last month there are at least 10 actions that earn a minimum of 10% in the Spanish Stock Exchange.
But the greed of the investors that are entering, do so at an almost extreme point. It is certainly a rare and risky time for them. See in this graph, VIP clients, that is, rich of Bank of America, never had so much money in the stock market as until now.
Everything seems a moment of «gold rich» for investors.
And is that The great technological ones are at maximum, the Spanish banks in maximums, the defense industry at maximum … The Bitcoin also at maximum … What else can we ask for?
A little sanity. It is clear that business benefits and margins are in a good time, but investors should not lose perspective and think that there is something that can disrupt everything and must be followed: debt.
Debt is a great slab that can fall tomorrow … or in 15 years. That is the issue, that we do not know what the market can expect until it explodes, and, in the meantime, we must continue to dance the music of the markets, because exiting us long a long time can be a wrong decision of great draft.
The debt must be monitored and we must start by understanding where we are and what you can know, since the investor’s greed is a bad counselor for pauses.
See the percentage of debt of the main economies of the euro and US zone.
Shot, and right now France has just announced cuts of more than 40,000 million in its budget.
Is France the Canary in the mine? Will investors begin to ask for more tax adjustments to countries to avoid unbrodged deficits?
Well, you have to monitor what happens in the neighboring country and its possible drag effect. To put two figures on the table: the Spanish debt is 1,727,004,000,000 euros, and that is that the State is endive 15,000 million more a month for 2025 How far are we going to get? . And to put another figure the US debt is 36,214,310,000 dollars And he wants to continue borrowing according to his new budget.
As long as the bags continue to upload, no problem, keep in the upward trend, but monitor the macro data and above all changes in the tendency of the sectors where you have to invest will be the best strategy to rotate portfolios and move to the new opportunities that we give us the market.
… But that greed, does not make them lose money. You have to learn to build wallets to win in a stock marketas do the students of the most complete who perform investment strategies.