After the tough battle fought between BBVA y Sabadell Bank for more than a year; the first with a hostile takeover bid and the second, trying to convince its shareholders not to participate in the offer, it is time to look at how their respective shareholders have fared after that “no” that put an end to this long story.
A first reading points to a clear winner: BBVA’s share has risen 30% from 15.89 euros on October 16 to the current 20.76 euros, and For the first time, the bank has crossed the threshold of 100 billion euros in market capitalization. The Banco Sabadell shareholder, although he has not missed some capital gains in these four months, is currently at the same price as the happy day of the “no”: 3.25 euros per share.
However, as often happens in the stock market, not everything is so simple. And there are interesting nuances. Sources close to BBVA highlight that not having participated in the takeover bid has substantially changed the exchange equation. If previously for each BBVA share they had to deliver 4.8 Sabadell shares, now that exchange would be one BBVA share for every 6.5 shares of the entity chaired by Josep Oliú. Inside the world of hypotheses This means that the Sabadell shareholder has stopped earning 33% due to not accepting the exchange equation or because the takeover bid failed..
But the revaluation of the bank headed by Carlos Torres has also been supported by his generosity towards shareholders, current and future. Last year it increased shareholder remuneration, including the payment of an interim dividend of 1,800 million euros (32 cents per share, the highest in its history), and a share repurchase of close to 1,000 million euros. In addition, it launched a new extraordinary share buyback program of nearly 4,000 million euros, the first tranche – now being implemented – is around 1,500 million euros.
A good performance of the bank that took shape this week with the statements of the president of remunerate the shareholder with 36,000 million euros, either in the form of a cash dividend or through the repurchase of shares until 2028. Analysts also have praise for BBVA. Goldman Sachs, included the value in its “Conviction list” for the month of January of European values. Analyst Sofie Peterzens expects BBVA to double the sector’s revenue growth in 2026, given its exposure to high-growth markets such as Mexico, South America, Turkey and southern Europe. «This income growth should be combined with digitalization and operational efficiency to generate higher returns and capital flexibility. Despite these higher returns, BBVA is trading in line with the sector,» he concludes in the arguments for including the bank in this list of preferred securities.
Also Bank of America (Bofa) choose BBVA ‘top pick’ (preferred value) with a ‘buy’ recommendation and a valuation that improves from 21 euros per share to 24.30 euros per share.
Sabadell will pamper its shareholders with the extraordinary dividend from the sale of TSB
The Catalan entity will be very generous with its shareholders. Although in these four months the value continues to be quoted at 3.25 euros, sources close to the bank remember that during the seventeen months that the takeover bid lasted, Sabadell revalued 90%, while BBVA 49% and they see his progress since then as a success given the omens of a sharp drop in the stock.
The bank plans a rremuneration in the coming months that amounts to around 3.6 billion euros. Included in this figure are 350 million euros corresponding to the second interim dividend that was paid on December 29, an additional remuneration of around 750 million euros charged to fiscal year 2025, and the extraordinary cash dividend of 2,500 million from the sale of TSB, which is expected to be paid in the second quarter of 2026.
These same sources indicate that the entity generates high levels of capital organically and recurrently with the prospect of continuing to offer attractive remuneration to its shareholders in the coming years. The estimate for the period 2025-2027 is 6,450 million euros.
Sabadell receives good recommendations from analysts. The Italian Intesa gives it a target price of 3.90 euros; JB Capital increases its bet on value up to 4.50 euros per share and this firm argues that “Sabadell continues to be the cheapest bank in Iberiatrading at only 8.7 times the estimated PER for 2027 excluding TSB (compared to 9.9x times on average) and offering a total return of 22% in 2026.” Alantra and the Swiss UBS point to a target price of 4 and 3.85 euros, respectively.