The bitcoin (BTC) market is facing intense selling pressure that has led it to touch $60,000, marking a correction of almost 50% from its all-time highs reached in October 2025.
This adjustment, driven by derivatives liquidations and a general feeling of panic, causes technical analysts and traders to be attentive, looking for the next equilibrium points for the digital asset.
On Polymarket, bettors assigned an 82% chance that bitcoin would fall below $65,000 at some point in 2026, which it eventually did.
In contracts for February from the same betting platform, a high probability of levels below $60,000 is projected (around 58% or more at related thresholds). Furthermore, the general feeling on the platform favors deep bearish scenarios about an immediate short-term recovery.
On the other hand, technical analysts have detailed specific projections. Among them, Nic Puckrin, from Coin Bureau, indicates that bitcoin could head towards $55,700. This would imply a further 15% decline from current levels.
Similarly, Katie Stockton, a technical strategist, projected hours ago that a decisive break below $70,000—as it occurred— would take the price to $57,800 before finding significant support.
However, Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel Financial Corp., a Missouri-based financial services firm, warned that bitcoin could fall as low as $38,000 in the current correction.
This projection is derived from drawing a straight line through the lows of bitcoin’s major bear market periods since 2010. These declines were 93% in 2011, 84% in 2015, 83% in 2018, and 76% in 2022.
«It has already dropped 41% below the maximum. “Bitcoin bulls have followed a linear trend that suggests a potential low of $38,000,” the team led by Bannister said in a report.
Currently, the crypto asset is influenced by several factors. Among these the increase in credit stress in the technology sector from mid-2025, more restrictive monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve (FED)regulatory uncertainty in the United States, lower liquidity in the market and persistent outflows from BTC spot ETFs, as NoticiasVE has been reporting.
Although Bannister does not rule out technical rebounds in the short term, he maintains that downward pressure will continue as long as these macroeconomic headwinds persist.