In weekly data, the IBEX 35 has had a week with a relevant impact in the very short term. At this time, the main stock market indicator for Spanish equities is trading at 17,250 points, which represents, compared to last Friday’s close, a correction of 6.05%. The week also started with a significant bearish gap, specifically -2.89%, already piercing the first relevant supports at the opening: on the one hand, the growing guideline that starts from the lows at the beginning of April 2025 and, on the other, the last growing low located at 17,581 points.
All of this reflects a significant chart deterioration in the very short term, also accompanied by a notable increase in volatility levels and by downward cuts in the MACD momentum oscillator in weekly terms, whose reading also starts from areas of extreme overbought. These are signs that should be monitored very closely given the possibility that the corrections extend both in time and depth. Added to this is a considerable uptick in hiring activity in recent weeks.
In this context, we understand that a scenario of tertiary or short-term correction is opening up in the Ibex 35 that calls into question the viability of supports that are already being directly attacked, specifically 17,240 and 17,076 points. A weekly closing below 17,076 points would open the door to a greater role in sales and would allow the correction in price to extend. In that case, the following objectives would be located around 15,763 and 15,724 points. From the breaking point, we would be talking about potential additional declines of 7.69% and 7.91% in the short term.
However, if we broaden the perspective – something fundamental in the analysis – even these falls would continue to fit within a proportional and normal correction with respect to the bullish stretch developed since the lows of April 2025. In fact, this movement would place the index in the vicinity of the proportional decline of 38.2%, close to 15,900 points. In this scenario, the correction, despite the rebound in volatility, would be cushioned within the strong secondary or medium-term bullish structure that we have been highlighting for months and that begins precisely at the April 2025 lows.
Therefore, In the short term we could be witnessing the beginning of a corrective phase in the Ibex 35.A weekly close below 17,076 points could accelerate that process. Meanwhile, and until we see weekly closes above the current annual and historical highs, located at 18,573 points, we will continue working with a more likely scenario of continuity of uncertainty and corrections in the short term.
In short, we are talking about a situation of stagnation and a possible turn in the sentiment of market participants for the coming weeks within the selective Ibex 35.
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