Argentina is about to close a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with the aim of strengthening its level of reservations. In recent days, global instability originated in Washington has also impacted the local market, promoting both country risk and the price of the dollar. Meanwhile, Javier Milei’s government maintains a change rate with a monthly adjustment of 1%, under the modality of crawling peg: A regime that combines a fixed exchange rate with gradual corrections. In this scheme, the official dollar remains controlled, but progressively adjusts to a pre -established pace.
According to local media, the IMF plans Argentina has signed more than 20 agreements with the background throughout its history. The most recent was one of the type Extended Fund Facility (EFFfor its acronym in English; Expanded Fund Service, in Spanish), signed in 2022, aimed at countries that need to implement fundamental economic reforms.
Thus, there is talk of a first disbursement that could be around 60% of the agreed amount, that is, USD 12,000 million – a higher than the USD 8,000 million that were initially estimated. As confirmed by the newspaper La Nación through anonymous sources, several IMF member countries would have demanded the presentation of a road map that contemplate the abandonment of the current regime of crawling pegwith the objective of Argentina to advance towards a «dirty flotation» system – that is, in which the Central Bank can intervene in the exchange market.
It is also estimated that, if the IMF approves the new agreement this week – which would be of the type Extended Fund Facility (EFF)-, The first batch of funds could arrive that same day at the hands of the Central Bank. Unlike previous occasions, this time the body would not demand an abrupt devaluation of the exchange rate.
On the other hand, there are expectations that, together with the IMF funds, additional credits from the Inter -American Development Bank (IDB), the World Bank and the Andean Development Corporation (CAF), which would raise loans for Argentina above the USD 24,000 million.
Just a few weeks ago, in an opinion article, President Milei himself deepened his diagnosis on the country’s economic situation. As he explained, Argentina’s problems have their origin in deep imbalances caused by an excessive expansion of the monetary base. Warned that, Even ending the issuance of money, their effects continue to feel for a while. Therefore, the government would have chosen to maintain the regime of crawling peg while working in parallel in the recomposition of the balance of the Central Bank.
For Milei, it is not enough to stop the emission of money or stabilize the exchange rate: it is also essential to solve the structural imbalances of the Central Bank. He argues that if the monetary entity has a negative net worth – that is, if its liabilities exceed the value of its assets – the economy drags a latent inflationary pressure. It is for this reason that they would have gone to the IMF: to increase reservations and lay the foundations of an uninflationary process that is sustainable.
Argentina’s return to the International Monetary Fund has generated controversy both inside and outside the country. At the beginning of January, Cryptonoticias reported the opinion of the renowned economist Saifedanan Ammous, who warned that a new agreement with the agency «will condemn Argentines to a generational slavery of debt.» On that occasion, the advisor on Bitcoin issues of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele described Milei as «another Latin American populist,» and said that He managed to «deceive the poor Argentines to trust again in their broken central bank».
While Argentina advances in a new agreement with the IMF and seeks to rebuild its macroeconomic forehead, in parallel it also hardens fiscal control over citizens. At the beginning of April, the Customs Collection and Control Agency (ARCA) enabled the system to submit the declaration of personal property tax, which now requires taxpayers to detail not only the amount and valuation of their cryptoactives, but also also its acquisition date, public key and type of storage. This new obligation reaches those who have cryptocurrencies for more than USD 200,000.