José Luis Cava remembers when in March-April the investment banks warned that the US was going to enter recession and “the bags are going to sink”, while Trump said they would rise. Five months later, the S&P 500He has marked a new historical maximum and closed above 6,500.
It also focuses on the fear of a «black swan» for the rise in the profitability of the Japanese bonus at 30 years, which some compare with the crisis of 1987. The expert rejects this vision: «What I think is that We are going to attend bullish bags in 2026 and that is not a black swan. «
He explains that the fall in the profitability of the Chinese bonus reflects the weakness of its economy and anticipates that “Xi Jinping will have to take a step forward to stimulate consumption” and that the Bank of China will maintain expansive policies.
On Japan, he acknowledges that the profitability of the 30-year bonus is at 2007-2008 levels, but stresses that the relevant is the differential in front of the American bondwithout big problems. In addition, remember that Yen falls against the dollar since 2016, which «favors international liquidity,» and that The Nikkei maintains bullish trend. Therefore, it rules out fear.
As for the S&P 500, it warns that Strong optimism bothers him. He points out that “institutions are buying, and When institutions buy they are wrong « While individuals begin to sell. The CNN fear and greed indicator is in the greed zone (but not extreme), and a survey reveals that more than 40% of Americans believe that the bag will rise in 12 months.
He concludes that there can still be a rise section, but in September a correction could reach: “It is to throw all these bulls … and In that correction they will give us an opportunity to go back to the bag and enjoy climbing during the year 2026 and the end of 2025 ”.