What assessment do you make of this 2025?
The truth is that, despite everything and the uncertainty and volatility with which this year began and that we have had throughout the entire year, In general, very positive results have been reported in the markets, both equity and fixed income.. That is the reality with many of the indices at historical highs, both in the United States, Europe, Asia, Japan and many emerging markets. But the reality is also that These good market results have not been the same in all sectors and not all funds have collected them.
This year is being a year with a lot of dispersion in returns that we can see in the different categories, especially in equities, also in fixed income, but especially in equities, where we see funds, markets with revaluations above 10% and, however, we see other markets and sectors in negative.
Above all, what we have seen this year and which made the truth that there are many years in which we had not had that risk or, of course, that profitability detractor has been the evolution of the dollar. The sharp drop at the beginning of the year, a drop of more than 10%, has reduced the profitability of all those funds that invest mainly in the United States, but are in euros and do not cover currency risk. And that has greatly influenced the final result of the year.
With which, being a very positive exerciseAs I say in variable income, Not all products or all sectors have done well or given good results.. So we are in an exercise that generates a little bit of uncertainty. And also in fixed incomewe have seen that short terms have achieved returns of around 3% or 3.5% in many investment funds. The medium and long terms have also generated some dissatisfaction in the investor because the results were not as expected. That, taking into account that the European Central Bank Yes, it has met expectations by lowering rates to 2%, but in the United States the Federal Reserve has not only waited longer to lower rates, but has done so in a very restrained manner.
After Trump’s arrival to the White House and the uncertainty and fear that it brought, did you expect that 2025 would end this well?
We hoped that 2025, despite Trump, would be a good year. There were good prospects, at least at the beginning of the year.
We knew that, and he had already said it in his campaign, that Trump was returning to the issue of tariffs again, just as in his first term, that generated a lot of volatilitythat we also suffered corrections in those 2018 years, especially, when it began to implement tariffs and began its trade war against China mainly, but also against European countries. With which yes We anticipated that some uncertainty and volatility would be caused by Trump’s arrival.
Of course, what we expected is that it would generate so much fear and so much uncertainty about the American economy and, as I say, about the dollarwhich has caused many investors to reduce their dollar purchases and move to gold. And, well, that has also been one of the fundamental changes that we have seen in 2025.
Therefore, after that start in 2025, the month of February, the month of March, the first weeks of April, with those strong corrections, the outlook was, of course, much darker than it ended up being. We somewhat hope that this volatility, as we have been seeing, especially in this second half of the year, will decrease and the market will adapt to these decisions of the government and the Trump Administration, although we still have three years left in the government of Trump and the Republicans, which can continue generating volatility in the market.
What do you think will work better in 2026, fixed income or variable income?
With the panorama and with everything that is on the table, We think that there are many factors that are still very favorable for equities. with which we are moderately optimistic about the stock marketboth with the American and the European, especially because there is still a lot of money invested in monetary funds and, above all, in the United States, where interest rates for American investors continue to be very positive and continue to offer returns of around 3-4%, which means that there is still a lot of money in fixed income and monetary assets.
That money, little by little, also has to reach the market. Business results have been very good in the United States, in Europe also, somewhat more modest. The American economy, despite everything, is holding up and it is also expected that, above all, next year, when there are midterm elections in the United States in November, Trump’s policies will be more social, more pro-market, with lower taxes, which can also generate inflation. And there we will have to see how the Federal Reserve is managed. But we think that these measures and this tax reduction are positive for the equity market.
In Europamaybe the economy does not grow at the desired ratebut fiscal policies, especially in Germany, are also expected to support investment and that this will also be reflected in the equity market.
With which, as I said, By 2026, we are moderately positive with equities and fixed income, it is true that returns were increasingly lower. The revaluation potential in fixed income has been reducing with what they have increased in the last two or three years, with these interest rate drops. Even so, we think that there are still opportunities and value in fixed income, in quality fixed income. We are in terms of between one and four years with profitability still around 2.5-3%, that is, above inflation.
So I think that too let’s find opportunities. Of course, as always, we will have to diversify a lot, be very selective, analyze everything point by pointbecause like this year, there will be dispersion between the returns that we can obtain in the different sectors, in the different markets.
Do you think that 2026 will once again depend, to a large extent, on the decisions of central banks?
Yes, because the market has become accustomed to moving depending on whether rates fall or not.
It is true that the market is going to adapt to the interest rates we are in. Some more cuts are expected, including in Europaalthough already at these levels and with inflation controlled and if the economy reactivates, many reductions would not be necessary. But it is true that there is many doubts still about the German economic recovery and that may lead the European Central Bank to consider some more cuts to help, above all, this reactivation of Germany.
and in USAand we hope there is some more cutsalthough there are very aware of the entire tariff issueof all that tax policyas I say, of Donald Trump’s tax cuts, which may influence this inflation to once again be said to be punctual due to the issue of tariffs, but which may become something more lasting. So We will be vigilant and the market toobecause with these interest rates, the stock market can do well, but if they fell a little more, small and medium capitalization sectors and companies would benefit more, they have been left behind and perhaps that would be their impetus to have a good 2026.