Following the script planned, for once, Donald Trump has assured that «in a few moments, I will sign a historical executive order, reciprocal tariffs to countries around the world. Reciprocal. That means that they do it to us and we do it to them. Very simple. It cannot be simpler than that.» The new tariffs will take effect immediately after Trump’s announcement tonight, as the White House spokesman, Karoline Leavitt confirmed on Tuesday, while tomorrow, April 3, another global tariff on car imports will enter into force. On April 5, the reference tariff will enter into force while reciprocal tariffs will have an effect as of April 9. Meanwhile, Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto parts must enter into force no later than May 3, according to the Federal Registry.
For weeks, Trump has said that his reciprocal tariff plans are a measure to match US tariff rates generally lower with which other countries charge and counteract their non -tariff barriers that harm US exports. A measure that enters its «Make America Wealthy Again» plan (make the United States again rich) but the tariff format was not clear. Trump has confirmed during his presentation that with these measures «We are going to be richer than any other country» While making it clear that the United States cannot continue financing Mexico’s deficits, Canada … «–
Trump exposes his theory that Tariffs will bring back a «golden age» for the United Statesa phrase that also used in his inaugural speech: «Jobs and factories will return to our country, and it is already seen that it is happening. We will enhance our national industrial base.» Trump says that reciprocal tariffs will bring «stronger competition and lower prices for consumers» in the United States.
Trump says that «for the nations that treat us badly» we will calculate the combined rate of all their tariffs, non -monetary barriers and other forms of deception and we will charge approximately half of what they are charging us and have been charging us. China, the EU, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan lead the list of reciprocal tariffs.
Several experts have pointed out that The number of countries that would face these tariffs will exceed 15 Regarding which previously the secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, had said that the administration was focused by its high commercial surpluses with the United States. However, the Trump administration is mainly directed to 7 great actors: the EU, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Canada, India and China, with a more focused approach than the initial threats of a global tariff war.
As Trump has announced – with a large cardboard as if it were a game – the European Union will have a 20%tariff, Vietnam will have a 46%tariff, Cambodia 49%, Taiwan 32%, Japan 24%, South Africa 30%, India 26%, South Korea 25%, Thailand 36%, Swiss a 31%, Indonesia 32%. United Kingdom will have a 10%tariff, Switzerland: 31%, Cambodia: 49%, Taiwan: 32%and Malaysia: 24%
As expected, China is the most affected countrywith an average increase in tariffs from 10.2% to 34%. This figure is still far from the threat of tariffs of 60% that was made before the elections on all the goods imported from China. It will certainly be even more difficult for countries that were almost not subject to American tariffs. This is the case of Mexico and Canada.
Trump’s message seems to be much more aggressive than many observers had been waiting for. It is not clear if Trump is really interested in commercial agreements: he continues to highlight that foreign manufacturers are free of establishing operations in the United States and avoiding tariffs. It also highlights the collection power of rates. None of those things suggest that he is excited about the idea of free trade agreements with his counterparts.
Tariffs accumulate and undermine investors confidence
In just over 10 weeks since its inauguration, The Republican President has already imposed new tariffs of 20% to all imports from China for fentanyl and has completely restored 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, aluminum, extending them to derived products worth almost 150,000 million dollars. An extension of one month for most Canadian and Mexican products of their 25% tariffs related to fentanyl will also expire on Wednesday.
Administration officials have said that All Trump tariffs, including previous rates, accumulateso a car manufactured in Mexico that was previously charged 2.5% to enter the US would be subject to both tariffs on fentanyl and sectoral tariffs on cars, which would mean a tariff rate of 52.5%, plus any reciprocal tariff that Trump can impose on Mexican products.
The growing uncertainty about tariffs is eroding the confidence of investors, consumers and companies in forms that could stop the activity and raise prices. The economists of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank showed in a recent survey that the heads of American companies expect tariffs to increase prices this year, while reducing hiring and growth.
And, in fact, For some analysts this scenario would lead to the Federal Reserve to cut the rates three times this year. But an acceleration of inflation due to the highest import costs can hinder the cutting of the Fed.
According to the Bloomberg Economics index, the uncertainty of commercial policy reached a record in March, even more than at any other time in Trump’s first mandate. And «These models predict that the increase in uncertainty on its own will stop the US industrial production. UU. 1.1% for the second quarter of next year. For the world economy, the coup is almost 1.7%,» Bloomberg quotes.
This has led investors to sell actions aggressively for more than a month, eliminating almost 5 billion dollars of the value of US shares since mid -February.
After Trump’s decision, Wall Street futures turn down. The future of Dow Jones yields 0.6%, up to 41,751 points, the future of S&P 500 yields 0.9% while the future of Nasdaq 100 decoces 1.2%, up to 19,187 points.
The dollar goes down. The euro dollar pair rises currently 0.2%, to $ 1,0835.
He American Bonus: The return of the ten -year bonus declines to 4,141% while the yield of the two -year bonus rises to 3,873%
Gold: rises 0.17%, over $ 3,131
The future of oil West Texas advances 0.18%, up to $ 71,396.
Can you reprose or not? The market expects
Commercial partners, from the European Union to Canada and Mexico, have promised to respond with retaliation tariffs and other countermeasures, even when some have tried to negotiate with the White House. China has said that you are ready to retaliate against Trump’s tariff campaign. But it is not so easy for other Asian nations, and even for Beijing, there is a limit.
No matter how high the United States of commercial barriers, Asian nations are discovering that exports to the world’s largest economy are still too important to sacrifice its. They need to do business with the United States More than Washington does with them, especially when it comes to finding end customers for what they do and produce.
What seems to The market is clear is that new tariffs could generate «billion dollars over a decade», According to US administration. However, the Chinese example calls for caution: US customs income from China, after reaching its maximum in 2022, descended sharply in 2023, illustrating the ability to adapt companies in response to commercial barriers.
In addition, it is likely that US battery manufacturers feel the pinch of 34% reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump, since most of the world’s graphite comes from China. Graphite is a key ingredient in lithium -ion batteries, and graphite costs will increase with rates, according to Bloombergnef.
In practice, we would be talking about about 40,000-45,000 million dollars a year. It is undoubtedly a significant amount, but it is far from being sufficient to significantly reduce the American deficit.
Economists warn that their remedy – imponents tariffs – would raise prices inside and outside the country and affect the world economy. According to the Yale University Budget Laboratory, a 20%tariff, in addition to taxes, would cost at least $ 3,400 to the American home.