If a winning asset this 2025 had to be crowning, the gold takes it from the street. With a revaluation of +27.4% so far this year, it has not only beaten traditional assets, but also more volatile alternatives such as bitcoin ( +4.3%) or global variable income. Gold remains a very profitable asset for real types close to zero or negative in many economies. With The types of the central banks down and inflation around the objective – but above – the gold continues its bullish path. It is also bosted by the weakness of the dollar, which pushes the demand for gold, for geopolitical uncertainty (the factor to be taken into account) and the high demand of central banks such as China, India, Turkey, or Russia. If you thought I was already expensive, I remind you that gold is not valued by future cash flows, but by trust.
Source: Carlos Arenas Laorga
There is no market without narrative, and in recent years, the star narrative has been that of the Big Tech. However, 2025 is breaking the idyll: the Nasdaq 100 yields 4.4% YTD, and the select group of “the 7 magnificent” falls 12% in the year. To that we must add the Falls in Growth actions and technology. We have seen refuge in gold, in non -American actions, in bonds and rotation towards more defensive sectors, such as health and basic consumption, which although they do not shine, do not bleed either. Of course, excessive valuations after years of increases caused many companies to have multiples so stretched that any disappointment takes its toll. Now We see companies of the same quality, at better prices for this de-rating (Good benefits and falls in the price, which makes Per more attractive).
Also, with a Weakest dollar and a less synchronized global economyAmerican technology no longer have the tail wind of other times. But they are still the secular growth engine, on the other hand.
If a macro fact is marking the pattern this 2025, it is the weakness of the dollar. With a fall of -8.1% in front of the euro, the green ticket is losing its traditional role of asset refuge. And this has multiple implications, such as the rebound of assets called in dollars, such as emerging or gold itself. It also helps countries with dollar debt, since it is now difficult for them to return it. And it remains attractive to US bonds and actions for foreign investors.
And be careful, because this trend can continue if the type cuts in the US are finally confirmed.
Source: Carlos Arenas Laorga
On the other hand, After several complicated years, 2025 is being a year of relative truce for fixed income. The profitability of indexed bonds to inflation and the US market exceeds the +2%, and high quality bonds also offer moderate positive returns. However, the surprise is given by bonds linked to inflation (+3.4%) and the convertibles (+1.9%), which combine protection against price increase and partial exposure to variable income. In a Inflationary moderation environment and expectation of type cutsinvestors look at the fixed income as what was always: a stable source of income and protection.
The Emerging variable rent, with a +6.9% ytdIt is showing recovery signals. The stabilization of Yuan, the relative improvement in some raw materials and the end of restrictive policies in several countries have given some air to these markets. Of course, there are still divergences: Asia is better than Latin America, where political volatility does not give truce. And in bonds, recovery is shy, but consistent.
But, although a greatly improved for a month, not everything is joy: the profitability table reminds us that, in addition to the Nasdaq and the dollar, other assets are leaving their own, such as small companies, or commodities.
This year 2025 is leaving us several interesting lessons that I want to highlight (there are sure there are others, but I would stay with three):
- The diversification. Who only opted for technological or Small Caps is suffering. Who distributed between gold, fixed income and emerging, navigates with a favorable wind.
- He dollar. Its weakness is reorganizing capital flows and favoring alternative assets.
- Los types They matter, but also the starting point. Now that cuts are expected, the market rewards those who suffered before, such as bonds or real assets.
No one knows how 2025 will end, but The current photo already teaches us a lot. Gold shines, the dollar doubts, and technological ones question their leadership. To investors, we only have to do the usual: observe, adjust and not fall in love with the fashion asset. Because markets do not always repeat the same patterns, but the same lessons. That is, get away from the short -term noise and look beyond. A month ago we saw these indexes 10% below, who was going to tell us that it was going to recover so fast? We do not know the future. Make a long -term strategy and take advantage of volatility.