Gold breaks $4,000 as a total record despite the record gains in equities with all-time highs in many global indicators. Something that may seem like a paradox but, due to the special and anomalous circumstances that the market is experiencing, in the midst of major geostrategic problems – among which the political situation in France stands out, with the new fall of a prime minister – and a global change in the commercial paradigm due to Donald Trump, for a status quo that will no longer return, The traditional precious metal has transcended the usual with its historical highs.
Their increases, which are close to 50% while exceeding 4,000 to consolidate itself as the largest asset in the financial markets, with a global market value that is 5.6 times greater than that of Nvidia, the largest company in the world with 4.6 trillion in stock market value.
And also with Silver, or other metals, such as Copper Futures, the same thing is happening, with annual revaluations of 65% and exceeding 27%, respectively.
A refuge that has infected some of the main companies in the mining sector, especially in this second part of the year, although the main companies in the sector are located in the United States, such as Barrick Gold, which skyrocketed during the year, 111%, and Newmont’s revaluation of 125%. Remembrance as far as exercise goes.
But it is about looking for what can rise and that has behaved well below the market, in stock markets with highly overbought values and approaching or exceeding maximums in many cases.
Pablo García, general director of Divacons Alphavalue, considers that the firm’s new investment perspective, after the strong increases, with «the main bet is focused on the metals and mining sector, which has shown good performance and still has significant growth potential. This sector benefits from the rise in prices of metals such as gold, silver and copper, and does not seem to be overvalued.»
But all that glitters is not gold, nor is it silver. Let them tell it but to the Spanish steel companies that continue to gain ground. In recent times, too, due to the decisions of Brussels.
And the community government proposes a double objective. Specifically, The European Commission proposes, in improving its safeguard of the sector in 2018, to cut by 47% steel imports that will be able to enter the European Union free of tariffs. Measures that were initially intended to end in June of next year and that are now being tightened.
But at the same time, it will also increase the tariffs that will apply once that quota is exceeded to levels in line with those of the United States or Canada, which currently impose a 50% tariff on European steel. Specifically, It is about increasing from the current 25% to 50% all those imports that exceed the 47% quota.
Today the proposal is expected with decisive details to establish what they consider a ‘new commercial safeguard’ for the sector, intended for fight against excess steel production capacity globally, especially in China, that floods the community market with heavily subsidized imports that represent unfair competition for local producers.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula Von Der Leyen highlights that «a strong and decarbonized steel sector is vital for the competitiveness, economic security and strategic autonomy of the European Union. «Global overcapacity is hurting our industry.»
In reality, it is a proposal that will have to be debated with the countries involved within the WTO, the World Trade Organization, but with the idea of combating current overcapacity.
And these two factors benefit Spanish steel stocks. Morgan Stanley highlights that this proposal forms a scenario that would exceed market expectations, probably underpinning a structural increase in profits, in the case of ArcelorMittal.
Furthermore, its analyst Alain Gabriel considers that it offers the most attractive risk-adjusted upside, while, in the case of stainless steel, he opts for Aperam, which is barely 3.7% away from its annual highs, and for which Jefferies has just improved to 33 euros from 28 euros per share, its target price. Let us remember that this is its former subsidiary, now listed as an independent company.
For Bankinter, European companies have several catalysts in the medium term: (1) the proposed tariff measures should contribute to improving expectations for market share recovery in the medium term to imports (the market share of steel imports would remain around 25% and stainless steel in Europe represented 23% in Q2 2025) and a reduction in the risk premium.
Y (2) Expectation of improvement in investment decisions in Europein an environment of low interest rates (ECB 2.0% and 2.15%). Among them, measures to accelerate investment in Defense and Infrastructure plans in some countries such as Germany.
And they see an improvement to buy from hold in the value recommendation, while, they raise their target price to 34.6 euros from 27.
For Acerinox, which maintains an annual advance of 33.5% and a double-digit improvement, which exceeds 12.6% in the last month, thanks to the leaks of this news that has considerably encouraged the value and the improvement of its recommendations.
Morgan Stanley visualizes 14 euros for the value in its target price, overweights its shares and is among its favorites, it is a ‘top pick’ for the American firm.
The reasons argued by its analyst Adahna Ekoku is that «expectations for the fourth quarter continue to point to improvement, although, at the same time, it sees little room to exceed the profitability levels of the second, due to the seasonal weakness of demand in the US, the low demand for alloys and the limited price momentum in the EU.» At least to date.
From Bankinter, they see an improvement to buy in their recommendation and They raise their PO on the value by one euro, up to 12.
And in Santander, although they lower their target price to 14.40 euros per share, They see a potential of 21.3% on Acerinox shares with a recommendation to overweight its securities in the Ibex 35 of the Spanish stock market.