Oxford will launch viable quantum computers by 2028: Will Bitcoin resist?

The Oxford Quantum Circuit (OQC) company announced on June 5 that it intends to revolutionize the scalability of quantum computing. By the year 2028, OQC plans to reach 200 qubits logical and by 2034, the goal is more ambitious: 50.000 qubits logical on quantum computers.

These figures, according to the report of the British company that emerged from the University of Oxford, exceed more than 10 times the conversion efficiency of qubits Physical to logical with respect to current approaches.

As described by Oxford Quantum Circuit, the purpose will be to use quantum computing for fraud detection fraud detection, cybersecurity and the development of new medications, prioritizing sectors such as finance, defense and.

Authorities think about quantum and bitcoin

Adam Back, co -founder of blockstream, a company that develops technologies linked to Bitcoin, said ECDSA would require a quantum system with «300 million qubits Physicists » And a correction of errors that currently do not exist, estimating that, at the current rhythm, this could take about 50 years, according to Back.

Since Back refers to the amount of qubits physical, it is necessary to approach a notion of how many of those qubits are necessary to build a qubit logical (those pointed out by the OQC report).

An April 2025 analysis of the post quantum specialized site explains that the conversion of qubits physical to logical has a high computational cost: each qubit logical may require hundreds or thousands of qubits Physical.

For example, according to post quantum data, a prototype of qubit Google logical 49 qubits physicists to encode one qubit logicalwhile, in less efficient systems, this proportion reaches 1,000 qubits physical by qubit logical.

Using as a reference that last figure of «1,000 qubits physical by qubit Logical », Oxford Quantum Circuit, with its technology» 10 times more efficient «, you may need around 100 qubits physical by qubit Logical, which means that 50,000 logical qubits would be equivalent to approximately 5 million qubits Physical (50,000 × 100), far from the 300 million that Back considers necessary to break ECDSA.

In line with Back’s vision, a study by the University of Sussex reported by cryptootics calculated that 13 million would be needed qubits physical To compromise Bitcoin’s encryption in one day, a number that, using the optimized proportion of OQC, would be equivalent to about 130,000 qubits logical (13,000,000 ÷ 100).

Charles Guillemet, CTO of Ledger, also minimized the current risks. In response to a Google report on quantum advances, he said that «a machine with millions of qubits stabilized and corrected of errors »to represent a real threat. «We are not even close to that,» he emphasized, highlighting the current technological limitations.

Thus, compared to these estimates of experts, the 50,000 qubits Logic of OQC by 2034, allegedly equivalent to 5 million qubits physical, They would still be below of the 13 million qubits necessary physicists according to Sussex.

Therefore, despite the advances promised by companies such as OQC, the quantum threat for Bitcoin seems, for now, A distant challengegiving time to the ecosystem to develop solutions such as algorithms resistant to quantum computing.